TOTAL VOLUME:

$115.8b

24H VOL:

$105,731,912

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,340,574,887

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,130,787,738

309,354

Markets across

29,931

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,247

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Bitcoin above ___ on August 21?
Crypto
polymarket
opinion

Bitcoin above ___ on August 21?

Total volume:
$1,932,484
Volume 24h:
$1,232,191
156%
Liquidity:
$0
100%
Open interest:
$830,988N/A

72,000

all

2 markets

Polymarket

100%

Opinion

100%

consensus

100%

+26.5%

spread

100-100%

(0pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

0%20%40%60%80%

Aug 17

Aug 17

Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 24

Vol.

$443.2k

·

Closed: Aug 21, 12:13 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Intro

This market tracks whether the price of Bitcoin will be above $72,000 on August 21, with a consensus probability of 100.0% drawn from Polymarket and Opinion, resolving against the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 PM ET on August 21. Watch the Bitcoin price action leading up to the end of the betting period on August 21 for potential shifts in market sentiment.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Opinion use identical resolution criteria: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 PM ET on August 21, with thresholds matching exactly.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 PM ET on August 21

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves to "Yes" if Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 PM ET on August 21 is strictly above the specified threshold
  • Market resolves to "No" if the price is at or below the threshold
  • Price precision is determined by Binance's native reporting (typically 2 decimal places for USDT pairs)

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Candle timing: If multiple candles are published for the exact same timestamp due to exchange delays, the last published candle for that minute is used
  • Exchange outage: If Binance is unavailable at the exact resolution time, the first available candle after 12:00 PM ET that matches the August 21 trading session is used
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately after the 12:00 PM ET Binance 1-minute candle closes on August 21, 2024Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds offer a forward-looking view that often diverges from the current spot price. While spot prices reflect recent trading activity, this market incorporates expectations for upcoming events, macro news, and market sentiment. Traders may price in volatility or major announcements, causing odds to shift independently of where Bitcoin trades today.