TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Best AI this week
kalshi

Best AI this week

Volume:
$165,609

Claude

 - Kalshi

Claude - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 24, 2026

Closed: Aug 24, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Claude

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17,240
N/A
N/A
$15,623
Settled
Yes
kalshi

ChatGPT

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$99,466
N/A
N/A
$95,308
Settled
No
kalshi

Grok

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,180
N/A
N/A
$18,180
Settled
No
kalshi

Gemini

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,393
N/A
N/A
$11,256
Settled
No
kalshi

Amazon Nova

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,488
N/A
N/A
$10,488
Settled
No
kalshi

Qwen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,575
N/A
N/A
$3,575
Settled
No
kalshi

Kimi

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,854
N/A
N/A
$1,854
Settled
No
kalshi

MUSE

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,557
N/A
N/A
$1,557
Settled
No
kalshi

Dola

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$856
N/A
N/A
$856
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

The event identifies which company's AI model reaches the top position on a general-purpose LLM leaderboard by a specific date. Rankings consider comprehensive performance indicators, with clear procedures for breaking ties among contenders.

Kalshi

Each market resolves if the specified company's LLM is ranked first on the designated leaderboard as of August 24, 2026. If models are tied under Rank (UB), the model with the highest Arena Score wins; if still tied, the model with the most votes wins; if still tied, the earlier-released model wins. All markets require checking the 'Remove Style Control' toggle when verifying the source.

Frequently asked questions

This market resolves around Aug 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner is determined by widely recognized announcements, industry awards, or major adoption milestones that clearly indicate leadership for the week.

Several signals could shift this market before it resolves. Major announcements — such as breakthrough results, funding rounds, or partnerships — for any competing AI could quickly change trader sentiment. Negative developments like security flaws or leadership changes might also impact odds. High-profile demonstrations, user adoption metrics, and media coverage in the days leading to Aug 24, 2026 will likely drive most of the price action, especially if they reshape perceptions of which AI is poised to be best this week.