TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
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Science and Technology
Best AI this week
kalshi

Best AI this week

Volume:
$296,495

Claude

 - Kalshi

Claude - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 6, 2026

Closed: Jun 6, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Claude

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$87,958
N/A
N/A
$70,426
Settled
Yes
kalshi

ChatGPT

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$110,281
N/A
N/A
$101,927
Settled
No
kalshi

Gemini

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$54,209
N/A
N/A
$46,189
Settled
No
kalshi

Qwen

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,807
N/A
N/A
$17,807
Settled
No
kalshi

Grok

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,310
N/A
N/A
$14,211
Settled
No
kalshi

Amazon Nova

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,731
N/A
N/A
$8,731
Settled
No
kalshi

Dola

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,038
N/A
N/A
$2,038
Settled
No
kalshi

Muse

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,162
N/A
N/A
$1,162
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Description

On June 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, which major AI company has developed the top-ranked large language model will be determined based on leaderboard rankings at that date and time.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because markets incorporate real-time trader sentiment and financial incentives. While analysts may publish weekly AI rankings or expert opinions, prediction markets aggregate distributed knowledge from participants with money at stake. For Best AI this week, market odds reflect traders' weighted assessment of which breakthrough or product will earn recognition, potentially capturing emerging consensus faster than formal analyst reports. Comparing the two reveals whether the market is pricing in developments analysts have overlooked or discounting hype analysts favor.

Best AI this week is priced on Kalshi as a set of binary or categorical outcome contracts, each representing a candidate AI achievement or product. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, where the price reflects the implied probability of that outcome resolving true. As new AI announcements, benchmarks, or releases occur throughout the week, traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. The market closes at Jun 6, 2026, at which point the winning outcome is determined and shares settle at 100 cents (or 0 cents for losers).

The Best AI this week market resolves at Jun 6, 2026. Resolution is determined by identifying which AI development, product launch, or announcement is recognized as the most significant or noteworthy during the specified week. This may include major model releases, benchmark achievements, regulatory milestones, or industry-defining breakthroughs. The exact criteria and source of truth for determining the winner are established in the market's resolution rules. Traders should review those rules carefully before trading to understand how the outcome will be adjudicated.

Several catalysts could shift odds for Best AI this week. Major AI model announcements or releases from leading labs like OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, or Meta would likely trigger sharp price moves. Breakthrough benchmark results, new capabilities demonstrations, or unexpected regulatory actions could also reshape trader expectations. Industry conferences, earnings calls mentioning AI progress, or viral AI applications gaining adoption may influence which outcome traders favor. Real-time news flow and social media discussion around AI developments will drive continuous repricing as the week unfolds and traders reassess which achievement will ultimately be deemed best.