TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Best AI model on September 14?
kalshi
polymarket

Best AI model on September 14?

Volume:
$45,707

claude-fable-5.1-max

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 14, 2:01 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

claude-fable-5.1-max

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15,764
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Claude

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,998
N/A
N/A
$3,177
Settled
No
kalshi

ChatGPT

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,906
N/A
N/A
$2,904
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Other

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,955
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

claude-opus-5-high

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,189
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

claude-opus-5-max

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,133
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

claude-opus-4-6-high

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$659
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Dola

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$103
N/A
N/A
$103
Settled
No
kalshi

Qwen

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Grok

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

GLM

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Kimi

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Gemini

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

MiniMax

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Description

This group of markets asks which AI model will be considered the best on September 14, 2026. 'Best' is determined by ranking on a specific leaderboard, but the leaderboard used differs between platforms. This creates a divergence in resolution criteria.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The platforms utilize different leaderboards (arena.ai Text Arena vs. LM Code Arena) to determine the 'best' AI model, creating a fundamental divergence in resolution criteria.Hero tip: Diversify your positions across platforms or focus on the platform with the most liquid markets. Recognize that performance on one leaderboard doesn't guarantee success on the other.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on the highest rank on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard, excluding 'AutoEval' models, with tiebreakers for rank and score. Resolution time is 12:00 PM ET on September 14, 2026.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on which model is #1 on the LM Code Arena Leaderboard at 10:00 AM ET on September 14, 2026. Each model has its own separate market.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Kalshi

Each market resolves based on whether the specified AI model ranks #1 on the LM Code Arena Leaderboard at 10:00am ET on September 14, 2026. If multiple models tie for the top rank, the publisher’s official tie-breaking methodology determines the winner; if none exists, all tied models share the highest rank. Contracts for tied models resolve to $1 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the Governing League, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, such as those found in this market, often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analyst predictions are based on individual expertise and models, this market incorporates the collective judgment of many traders. Differences can arise due to varying information access, biases, or interpretations of data. Sometimes, the market anticipates events before analysts, and other times, it confirms or contradicts their assessments. It’s valuable to compare both sources for a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.