TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 9:18 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system. If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system. If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Frequently asked questions
Compared to polling averages, this market often reflects a more nuanced outlook, incorporating factors beyond raw voter intent such as campaign dynamics, strategic voting, and potential turnout shifts. While polls provide a snapshot of public opinion, traders in this market price in real-time reactions to events, news, and perceived momentum, which can lead to divergence or alignment depending on recent developments.
This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final seat count will be compared against official tallies to determine the winning outcome. Timing depends on when authoritative sources release the certified results post-election.
Key events such as debate performance, polling updates, scandals, or shifts in coalition negotiations could move this market. Economic announcements, leadership changes, or voter turnout forecasts may also influence trader sentiment. Media coverage and analyst insights tend to drive short-term price swings as participants reassess probabilities in response to new information.
