TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 9:17 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%. If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered. The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison. If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%. If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered. The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison. If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market leans heavily toward higher turnout, with implied odds reflecting a strong expectation of increased voter participation. That view can diverge from traditional polling averages, which may show a more balanced or uncertain outlook. Market prices capture trader expectations influenced by factors beyond raw poll numbers, such as recent campaign momentum, public events, and perceived voter enthusiasm.
On Polymarket, this market uses trader bets to set its current odds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The probability displayed reflects collective trader sentiment about whether voter participation in the Berlin election will rise or fall compared with recent cycles. Volume of $4,403 shows overall interest, while recent 24-hour volume of $48 indicates how actively participants are trading. A high chance for one outcome suggests strong consensus among market users about likely voter behavior trends.
This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will hinge on official vote tallies compared with historical turnout records, and the market will settle based on whether participation is formally reported as higher or lower than the previous election cycle.
Poll releases, voter registration updates, and public commentary from political leaders could shift this market as they shape expectations about participation levels. Media coverage of key issues or controversies may also influence trader sentiment. Any major campaign events, weather forecasts for voting day, or changes in eligibility rules could cause rapid price swings before Sep 21, 2026. Traders will watch these signals closely to anticipate shifts in the likely turnout direction.
