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Berlin 2026 Election: How Large Will the Abgeordnetenhaus Be?
polymarket

Berlin 2026 Election: How Large Will the Abgeordnetenhaus Be?

Volume:
$43,750

153–157

 - Polymarket

153–157 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 9:18 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

153–157

View
100%
47%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,941
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

163+

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,499
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

158–162

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,633
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<143

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,677
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

143–147

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,519
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

148–152

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,480
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate). The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate). The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus size market tracks the current odds of different sizes for the Abgeordnetenhaus after the 2026 election. You can see the implied probability of each outcome, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $68. The total volume traded on this market to date is $43,750. This allows traders to monitor market sentiment and identify potential opportunities as the election approaches. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely size of the Berlin parliament.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages for the Berlin 2026 election. While polls attempt to capture stated voter intentions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on those outcomes. This difference can be significant, as market prices incorporate not only beliefs about who will win, but also information about the credibility of polls and the potential for unforeseen events. Discrepancies between this market and polls may indicate that traders believe polls are inaccurate or that factors not captured in polls will influence the election result.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares representing different possible sizes for the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus, and the price of each share reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand – if more people believe a particular outcome is likely, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism that adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their assessments of the election's likely outcome.

This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final size of the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus is verifiable from credible public reporting following the 2026 election. The resolution will be based on the officially certified results released by the relevant electoral authorities. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Polymarket once the outcome is confirmed. The market will then settle, and winning shares will be redeemable for the corresponding payout amount.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major shifts in German or Berlin-specific political landscapes, such as changes in party leadership or significant policy announcements, could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected economic developments impacting Berlin, or major shifts in public opinion revealed through polling data, could also drive price movements. Additionally, any news related to potential electoral reforms or changes to the rules governing the Abgeordnetenhaus could impact the perceived probabilities of different outcomes in this market.