TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
kalshi
polymarket

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

Total volume:
$276,315
Volume 24h:
$44,263
19%
Liquidity:
$71,819
65%
Open interest:
$29,947
25%

No change

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:22h:07m

No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?

86%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 87¢ buys you 115 shares | Odds: 86% Total Payout: $115 | Net Profit: $15 Multiplier: 1.15x | ROI: 15% APY not meaningful 2 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No change

Trade
86%
1%
Yes 87¢No 15¢
2¢
$10,767
$94,237
21%
72%
N/A
2d 22h 7m
Active
kalshi

Maintain current rate

Trade
86%
1%
Yes 85¢No 16¢
1¢
N/A
$11,799
7%
26%
$4,767
2d 23h 8m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
86%
Yes 86¢No 15.5¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Cut 25bps

Trade
15%
2%
Yes 15¢No 86¢
1¢
N/A
$25,008
29%
99%
$14,831
2d 23h 8m
Active
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
14%
1%
Yes 14.5¢No 87.4¢
1.9¢
$30,274
$79,315
33%
156%
N/A
2d 22h 7m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
13.9%
Yes 14.8¢No 86.7¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 1.9¢
kalshi

Hike 50bps

Trade
2%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$5,504
0%
0.23%
$2,072
2d 23h 8m
Active
kalshi

Cut 50bps

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$4,476
0%
0.28%
$1,897
2d 23h 8m
Active
kalshi

Hike more than 50bps

Trade
2%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,299
0%
0.38%
$2,284
2d 23h 8m
Active
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$10,141
$6,717
3%
13%
N/A
2d 22h 7m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.7%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Cut more than 50bps

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$5,745
0%
0.22%
$2,030
2d 23h 8m
Active
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$6,469
$7,687
18%
70%
N/A
2d 22h 7m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Hike 25bps

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$4,164
0%
0.53%
$2,066
2d 23h 8m
Active
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$14,167
$28,363
1%
45%
N/A
2d 22h 7m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.2%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
Total markets: 12

Description

This group forecasts the Bank of Mexico's decision regarding interest rates at its November 2026 meeting. The markets consider various potential outcomes, including rate cuts, hikes, or maintaining the current rate. Resolution will be based on the official announcement from the Bank of Mexico.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi defines resolution as 'Yes' for any action, while Polymarket offers specific markets for different rate changes, creating a SKU risk.Hero tip: If you believe the Bank of Mexico will make *any* change (even a small one), Kalshi is the better choice. If you have a strong opinion on the *type* of change, focus on the relevant Polymarket markets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket offers multiple markets focused on specific rate changes (e.g., decreases by 50+ bps, increases by 25 bps, no change). Resolution depends on whether the specific condition in each market is met. Source: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
  • Kalshi: Kalshi resolves 'Yes' if the Bank of Mexico cuts rates by more than 50bps, cuts by 50bps, cuts by 25bps, maintains the current rate, hikes by 25bps, hikes by 50bps, or hikes by more than 50bps. Effectively, any action resolves 'Yes'. Source: Kalshi market rules.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Kalshi

The resolution of these markets hinges on the official policy rate decision announced by the Bank of Mexico following its November Governing Board meeting. Each market corresponds to a specific rate movement: cutting or hiking by various basis point amounts, or maintaining the current rate. Only changes to the primary policy rate are considered; multiple rates issued by the bank are disregarded unless explicitly stated. If the scheduled meeting is cancelled or delayed beyond the expiration date, all 'No change' markets resolve to Yes, while all others resolve to No. Emergency rate adjustments occurring outside scheduled meetings do not impact contract resolutions. Basis point ranges are inclusive, meaning that a 50 basis point cut, for example, satisfies both the 'Cut 50bps' and 'Cut more than 50bps' markets. The outcome is determined solely by the official announcement made at the conclusion of the meeting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probability of different outcomes regarding the Bank of Mexico decision. Currently, there's a strong consensus view across both platforms, with the leading outcome, No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?, trading at approximately 86.0% on Polymarket and 86.0% on Kalshi. Total volume across both venues for this market is $276,315, indicating significant interest in predicting the central bank’s next move. The 24-hour volume is $44,246, showing recent trading activity surrounding the Bank of Mexico decision.

Prediction market odds often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ perspective, potentially incorporating information and analysis not fully captured in traditional analyst forecasts. This market, focusing on the Bank of Mexico decision, aggregates diverse viewpoints from traders on Polymarket and Kalshi. While analyst forecasts provide expert opinions, the prices here represent what individuals are willing to risk to bet on different scenarios. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies or the inclusion of non-public information within the market. Comparing these odds to consensus analyst expectations can offer a broader understanding of potential outcomes.

Prices for the Bank of Mexico decision may vary between Polymarket and Kalshi due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base with varying risk appetites and access to information, which influences trading activity. Trading volume also differs—Polymarket currently has a larger share of the overall volume—and this can create price discrepancies. Additionally, the specific market structures and fee schedules on each platform can impact how traders price the same underlying event. These differences are normal and reflect the dynamic nature of prediction markets.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official announcement from the Bank of Mexico regarding their decision at the November Governing Board meeting. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and how their positions are settled following the central bank’s statement. The outcome of this market reflects whether the Bank of Mexico maintains its current rate, increases it, or decreases it.

Several signals could significantly impact trading activity in this market leading up to Nov 6, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases from Mexico, such as inflation figures or GDP growth, could shift expectations about the Bank of Mexico’s policy. Statements from Bank of Mexico officials regarding future monetary policy are also likely to influence prices. Global economic events, like changes in US Federal Reserve policy or significant shifts in commodity prices, may also play a role. Any news suggesting a change in the economic outlook could lead to increased volatility in this market.