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Bank of Japan Decision in October?
polymarket

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

Jul 31, 2026, 7:42 PM EST - Oct 29, 2026, 8:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$220,338
Volume 24h:
$19,165
391%
Liquidity:
$125,993
15%
Open interest:
$61,311N/A

No change

 - Polymarket

No change - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 30, 2026

Time left: 14d:19h:17m

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

96%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 96.1¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% | APY: 163% 14 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No change

Trade
96%
1%
Yes 96.1¢No 4.3¢
0.4¢
$14,567
$65,714
0.88%
8%
N/A
2w 19h
active
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 3.8¢No 96.4¢
0.2¢
$33,279
$63,303
1%
2%
N/A
2w 19h
active
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢
0.1¢
$39,171
$55,800
5%
10%
N/A
2w 19h
active
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$22,092
$18,320
38%
49%
N/A
2w 19h
active
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$16,884
$17,202
139%
139%
N/A
2w 19h
active
Total markets: 5

Description

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Polymarket

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the BoJ October decision market dashboard displays real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $19,165. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of various outcomes for the Bank of Japan’s policy move in October, offering a visual snapshot of market sentiment and activity.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations. While analysts may weigh long-term economic indicators, traders in this market react to short-term signals, news, and sentiment shifts. This can lead to divergence or alignment depending on recent data releases and central bank communication.

On Polymarket, traders actively set the odds for the BoJ October decision market through continuous bidding. The current implied probability reflects collective expectations about monetary policy changes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements often follow key economic indicators, central bank statements, and shifts in global market sentiment. Monitoring trading volume and recent price swings can offer clues about market confidence or uncertainty heading into the decision date.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final decision will be based on official announcements from the Bank of Japan, after which contracts are settled according to the declared policy action.

Several signals could influence this market before it resolves on Oct 30, 2026. Domestic economic data releases — such as inflation figures, GDP growth estimates, or employment statistics — will be closely watched, as they may reshape expectations for policy tightening or easing. Statements from Bank of Japan officials about future monetary stance can also trigger rapid shifts. Additionally, broader risk-on or risk-off sentiment in global financial markets may affect trading dynamics, especially if driven by geopolitical developments or shifts in major central bank policies.