TOTAL VOLUME:

$126.8b

24H VOL:

$122,314,324

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,159,476,470

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,331,186,481

338,503

Markets across

31,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,864

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

40%

VS.

Kalshi:

60%

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Bank of England decision in September?
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Bank of England decision in September?

Total volume:
$295,314
Volume 24h:
$5,018
22%
Liquidity:
$144,696
24%
Open interest:
$1,989
40%

No change

all

2 markets

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 17, 2026

Time left: 02d:18h:44m

No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?

94%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 95.9¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 94% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% APY not meaningful 2 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

No change

Trade
94%
Yes 95.9¢No 8¢
3.9¢
$33,304
$4,603
14%
74%
N/A
2d 18h 44m
active
polymarket

No change

Trade
94%
1%
Yes 94.1¢No 6.3¢
0.4¢
$4,762
$152,257
1%
17%
N/A
2d 18h 44m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
94%
Yes 95¢No 7.2¢
Avg: 2.2¢Max: 3.9¢
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 5.7¢No 94.6¢
0.3¢
$3,546
$77,688
2%
30%
N/A
2d 18h 44m
active
predict

25 bps increase

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.5¢
$89
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 18h 44m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
6%
Yes 5.7¢No 94.6¢
Avg: 49.9¢Max: 99.5¢
predict

25 bps decrease

Trade
1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.7¢
0.8¢
$30,015
$412
0%
0%
N/A
2d 18h 44m
active
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.7¢
—
$5,701
$19,662
0.54%
9%
N/A
2d 18h 44m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.7¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 0.8¢
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.8¢
—
$4,287
$16,918
0.15%
6%
N/A
2d 18h 44m
active
predict

50+ bps decrease

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,549
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 18h 44m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.8¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$3,577
$20,720
0.61%
7%
N/A
2d 18h 44m
active
predict

50+ bps increase

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,867
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 18h 44m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
kalshi

Above 1.349

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$667
N/A
N/A
$257
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.347

View
100%
27%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$375
N/A
N/A
$125
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.345

View
100%
21%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$204
N/A
N/A
$204
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.351

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$203
N/A
N/A
$203
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.335

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$137
N/A
N/A
$131
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.343

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.333

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.337

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.355

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$501
N/A
N/A
$451
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.353

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$410
N/A
N/A
$160
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.369

View
0%
79%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$253
N/A
N/A
$203
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.367

View
0%
82%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$153
N/A
N/A
$103
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.357

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.339

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.341

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 30

Intro

This market tracks whether the Bank of England will alter its interest rates following its September 2026 meeting. Currently, the consensus probability estimates a 94.1% chance of no change in interest rates. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict, and will resolve based on the official Bank of England statement or release from the September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting. With a 5.7% probability, the second most likely outcome is a 25 basis point increase in interest rates. Keep an eye on the September 17, 2026, date, as this marks the end of the betting period and the expected release of the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use the same official source and core logic for determining rate changes, including rounding rules and handling of meeting cancellations or postponements.Primary resolution logic: Official Bank of England statement or release from the September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution depends on the change in the Bank Rate from the level prior to the September 2026 MPC meeting
  • Changes are rounded to the nearest 25 bps, with increases/decreases under 25 bps rounded up to 25 bps
  • If the meeting is postponed before the next scheduled meeting, the resolution uses the postponed meeting's outcome
  • If the meeting is cancelled or postponed with no decision announced before the next meeting, it resolves to No Change
  • Emergency rate changes not from the specified meeting are ignored for resolution purposes

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Postponed Meeting: If the September meeting is postponed to a date before the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves based on the outcome of that postponed meeting
  • Cancelled Meeting: If the specified meeting is cancelled or postponed with no decision announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the No Change bracket
  • Emergency Changes: Emergency changes to the policy rate not resulting from the specified meeting do not affect resolution
Timing: As soon as the official statement or release from the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting is issuedOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the GBPUSD exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on September 4, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a specific threshold; if the rate is above that threshold at the specified time, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data at exactly 5pm ET, the most recent available value before that time is used. Any revisions to the exchange rate after the expiration time are disregarded when determining the outcome.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the BoE September rate decision market shows real-time odds and liquidity from multiple venues, aggregating activity across Polymarket and Predict. It tracks the probability of various rate outcomes as priced by traders, with total volume at $295,314 and 24-hour volume of $5,281. This offers a live snapshot of market expectations versus official policy signals.

Currently, this market suggests a strong bias toward No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?, aligning closely with many analyst forecasts that expect no change in policy at the September meeting. The gap between market pricing and some institutional reports is narrow, reflecting broad consensus among economists. However, minor discrepancies can appear based on recent economic data releases or shifts in inflation expectations.

This market resolves around Sep 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result reflects the official decision announced by the Bank of England following its September policy meeting, comparing stated rates against the market’s defined criteria.

Key economic indicators due before Sep 17, 2026 — such as inflation reports, employment data, and consumer price metrics — will heavily influence expectations for monetary policy. Central bank communications, including speeches and forward guidance from policymakers, can shift probabilities sharply. Sudden geopolitical developments or market volatility may also affect trader sentiment. As Sep 17, 2026 approaches, any surprise data releases or policy hints are likely to drive rapid adjustments in this market, reflecting updated probabilities for the next policy move.