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24H VOL:

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2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Bank of England decision in November?
polymarket
kalshi

Bank of England decision in November?

Total volume:
$321,565
Volume 24h:
$6,110
447%
Liquidity:
$102,919
4%
Open interest:
$4,897
3%

Hike 1-25bps

 - Kalshi

Hike 1-25bps - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 21d:12h:17m

Will the Bank of England Hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

92%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 93¢ buys you 108 shares | Odds: 92% Total Payout: $108 | Net Profit: $8 Multiplier: 1.08x | ROI: 8% | APY: 253% 21 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Hike 1-25bps

Trade
92%
Yes 93¢No 8¢
1¢
N/A
$3,186
13%
14%
$1,539
3w 12h
active
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
92%
Yes 92¢No 9¢
1¢
$20,678
$136,587
1%
4%
N/A
3w 19h
active
polymarket

No change

Trade
10%
Yes 10¢No 91¢
1¢
$14,897
$101,857
1%
9%
N/A
3w 19h
active
kalshi

Maintain current rate

Trade
7%
Yes 9¢No 93¢
2¢
N/A
$2,709
8%
23%
$1,374
3w 12h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
9.4%
Yes 9.5¢No 92¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Cut 1-25bps

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$870
0%
0%
$467
3w 12h
active
kalshi

Cut more than 25bps

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,629
0%
0%
$991
3w 12h
active
kalshi

Hike more than 25bps

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,434
0%
0%
$526
3w 12h
active
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢
0.1¢
$9,458
$51,990
6%
9%
N/A
3w 19h
active
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$30,325
$13,766
0%
8%
N/A
3w 19h
active
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$27,561
$7,537
0%
0%
N/A
3w 19h
active
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks the probability of the Bank of England increasing interest rates by 25 basis points following its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket and Kalshi is 91.5% that the Bank of England will raise rates. This aggregated view incorporates data from both platforms and will resolve based on information published at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates. Traders should watch the Bank of England’s announcement on November 5, 2026, to see if the committee enacts a 25 basis point increase to the Bank Rate.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The platforms diverge in how they frame the possible outcomes. Polymarket focuses on specific basis point changes, while Kalshi focuses on broader action categories.Hero tip: Consider hedging across platforms if you have a strong directional view but are unsure about the exact magnitude. Polymarket requires a precise prediction of the bps change, while Kalshi only requires predicting the direction of the move.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket markets resolve based on the *change* in basis points to the Bank Rate after the November 2026 meeting. Specific thresholds (e.g., +50bps, -25bps) are used, with rounding rules for changes less than 25bps or equidistant from 25bps.
  • Kalshi: Kalshi markets resolve 'Yes' if the Bank of England takes a specific action (Cut, Maintain, Hike) at the November 2026 meeting. The actions are categorized into ranges (e.g., Cut 1-25bps, Hike more than 25bps).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Kalshi

The resolution of all markets depends on the official policy rate decision announced by the Bank of England following its November Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Only changes to the primary policy rate are considered; multiple rates do not affect outcomes. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, the “No change” market resolves to Yes, and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes occurring between scheduled meetings do not impact the resolution of these contracts. Each market resolves to Yes only if the actual rate movement falls precisely within its defined basis point range, which are inclusive (e.g., a 25 basis point cut would satisfy both the “Cut more than 25bps” and “Cut 1-25bps” markets). The five markets collectively cover all possible outcomes: cutting rates by more than 25 basis points, cutting rates by 1-25 basis points, maintaining the current rate, hiking rates by 1-25 basis points, or hiking rates by more than 25 basis points.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the aggregate prediction of the Bank of England decision. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms is $321,565, with $6,010 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view of what traders believe will happen with the Bank of England’s monetary policy. Polymarket currently favors Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting? at 91.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the Bank of England Hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting? at 92.0%. The dashboard allows you to monitor how these probabilities shift as new information becomes available.

Prediction market odds, like those reflected in this market, often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be subject to biases or constraints, whereas prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of many independent traders. While analyst forecasts can be valuable, this market provides a real-time, incentivized assessment of probabilities. Discrepancies between prediction market prices and analyst expectations can sometimes signal overlooked factors or emerging consensus shifts regarding the Bank of England decision. It’s a useful tool for comparing different viewpoints.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Different trading dynamics and user bases on Polymarket and Kalshi can lead to price discrepancies. Polymarket may attract a different class of trader than Kalshi, resulting in varying interpretations of the same economic data. Furthermore, liquidity can differ between the two platforms, influencing price discovery. The fee structures and market-making activity on each platform also contribute to these variations. These factors mean that while both platforms address the same question about the Bank of England decision, their prices may not always align perfectly.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the Bank of England’s official announcement regarding its monetary policy decision following the November meeting. The outcome will reflect whether the Bank of England increases, decreases, or holds interest rates. Traders should monitor official communications from the Bank of England for details regarding the final decision, as these will be the basis for determining the outcome of this market.

Several key economic indicators and statements from Bank of England officials could significantly impact this market. Unexpected inflation data, employment figures, or GDP growth reports will likely cause price fluctuations. Any shifts in forward guidance from members of the Monetary Policy Committee could also move the market. Geopolitical events and global economic conditions will also play a role, as these can influence the Bank of England’s policy decisions. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding how this market evolves as we approach Nov 5, 2026.