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469,827

Markets across

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Bank of Canada Decision in October?
kalshi
polymarket

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

Total volume:
$377,181
Volume 24h:
$13,129
56%
Liquidity:
$33,404
19%
Open interest:
$100,672
0.4%

Maintains rate

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 28, 2026

Time left: 13d:08h:47m

Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?

81%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 81¢ buys you 123 shares | Odds: 81% Total Payout: $123 | Net Profit: $23 Multiplier: 1.23x | ROI: 23% APY not meaningful 13 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Maintains rate

Trade
81%
Yes 81¢No 20¢
1¢
N/A
$92,853
3%
18%
$50,410
1w 6d 8h
active
polymarket

No Change

Trade
79%
5%
Yes 79.3¢No 20.9¢
0.2¢
$6,388
$67,991
6%
25%
N/A
1w 5d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
80.2%
Yes 80.2¢No 20.5¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
20%
5%
Yes 20.1¢No 80.5¢
0.6¢
$7,503
$58,100
8%
33%
N/A
1w 5d 19h
active
kalshi

Hike 25bps

Trade
18%
Yes 20¢No 81¢
1¢
N/A
$78,933
1%
11%
$33,555
1w 6d 8h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
18.8%
Yes 20.1¢No 80.8¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Hike >25bps

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,575
0%
8%
$2,400
1w 6d 8h
active
kalshi

Cut >25bps

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$537
0%
2%
$537
1w 6d 8h
active
kalshi

Cut 25bps

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$20,552
0%
1%
$13,770
1w 6d 8h
active
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$7,207
$23,927
0.81%
41%
N/A
1w 5d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$6,496
$20,657
0.94%
13%
N/A
1w 5d 19h
active
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$5,809
$11,058
6%
107%
N/A
1w 5d 19h
active
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks the probability of the Bank of Canada maintaining its current overnight rate at its October 28, 2026, meeting. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Kalshi and Polymarket gives an 84.0% probability to the outcome of no rate hike. This market resolves based on whether the Bank of Canada maintains the current rate at its October 28, 2026 meeting, as determined by the Bank of Canada itself. Traders should watch the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy report scheduled for release on October 21, 2026, as it may signal their intentions ahead of the meeting.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market resolves 'Yes' for any rate change or no change, while Polymarket offers separate markets for specific rate changes.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is broader; Polymarket's markets require more precise predictions about the magnitude of the rate change.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket offers multiple markets, each focused on a specific rate change (e.g., +50bps, +25bps, -25bps, -50+bps). Resolution depends on whether that specific change occurs.
  • Kalshi: Kalshi's market resolves 'Yes' if the Bank of Canada hikes rates by any amount (greater than or equal to 25bps), cuts rates by any amount, or makes no change. It's a broader 'change or no change' question.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the Bank of Canada's policy decision at its October 28, 2026 meeting. Outcomes are mutually exclusive, with each resolving to Yes only if the Bank of Canada takes that specific action: a rate cut greater than 25 basis points, a cut of exactly 25 basis points, maintaining the current rate (0 basis points), a hike of 25 basis points, or a hike greater than 25 basis points. Only one outcome can resolve to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on the Bank of Canada decision. Currently, the aggregate volume across both platforms is $377,181, with $13,120 traded in the last 24 hours. This indicates significant interest in predicting the outcome of the October meeting. Polymarket currently favors Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting? at 79.2%, while Kalshi also leans toward Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting? at 81.0%. This suggests a strong expectation, though some divergence remains between the two platforms.

Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on economic models and reports, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the Bank of Canada’s actions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data, access to non-public information, or simply the inherent biases present in forecasting. Comparing the implied probability in this market to consensus analyst expectations can offer a more nuanced view of potential outcomes and the level of uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Canada decision.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may differ due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a unique user base with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to differing trading activity. Market makers on each platform might also employ different strategies, influencing price discovery. Additionally, liquidity levels can vary between the two venues, impacting the efficiency of price adjustments. These factors contribute to the observed spread of 1.8 between the two markets, even though they track the same underlying event – the Bank of Canada decision.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the Bank of Canada’s official announcement regarding its monetary policy decision at the October meeting. Specifically, the market will reflect whether the Bank of Canada raised, lowered, or held steady the overnight rate target. Traders should monitor official Bank of Canada communications for the definitive outcome that determines the settlement of this market.

Several key signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, could shift expectations regarding the Bank of Canada’s stance. Statements from Bank of Canada officials regarding future monetary policy intentions will also be closely watched. Geopolitical events or changes in global financial conditions could also influence the market, as these factors can impact the Canadian economy. Any news that alters the perceived likelihood of a rate hike, cut, or hold will likely lead to increased trading volume and price adjustments in this market.