TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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Kalshi:

63%

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Balkan Elections Combo: Serbia and Bulgaria
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

Who will win Serbia and Bulgaria elections?

Oct 12, 2026, 4:22 PM EST - Nov 1, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$7,022
Volume 24h:
$410
60%
Liquidity:
$36,841
29%
Open interest:
$2,223N/A

Srdanović, Iotova

 - Polymarket

Srdanović, Iotova - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 1, 2026

Time left: 06h:29m:39s

Will Ilija Srdanović become Serbian PM and Iliana Iotova win Bulgaria?

17%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 32¢ buys you 313 shares | Odds: 17% Total Payout: $313 | Net Profit: $213 Multiplier: 3.13x | ROI: 213% APY not meaningful Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Srdanović, Iotova

Trade
17%
14%
Yes 32¢No 98¢
30¢
$315
$1,481
18%
380%
N/A
6h 29m
Active
polymarket

Vučić, Iotova

Trade
1%
Yes 1.2¢No 99.2¢
0.4¢
$13,608
$4,751
0%
15%
N/A
6h 29m
Active
polymarket

Vučić, Gyurov

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$12,625
$550
N/A
N/A
N/A
6h 29m
No
polymarket

Srdanović, Gyurov

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$10,294
$240
N/A
N/A
N/A
6h 29m
No
Total markets: 4

Description

Parliamentary elections in Serbia are scheduled to be held on October 25, 2026. The first round of the Bulgarian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve to the single listed outcome that matches both of the following: the first Prime Minister of Serbia to be sworn in as a result of the election, and the winner of the Bulgarian presidential election, including any second round. For full rules for the Serbian Prime Minister, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-serbia-20260629223938642 For full rules for the Bulgarian presidential election, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/bulgaria-presidential-election Additional options may be added to this market between market creation and resolution. In the event that any constituent market resolves to "Other," this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve according to the sources named in the two markets linked above.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections in Serbia are scheduled to be held on October 25, 2026. The first round of the Bulgarian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve to the single listed outcome that matches both of the following: the first Prime Minister of Serbia to be sworn in as a result of the election, and the winner of the Bulgarian presidential election, including any second round. For full rules for the Serbian Prime Minister, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-serbia-20260629223938642 For full rules for the Bulgarian presidential election, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/bulgaria-presidential-election Additional options may be added to this market between market creation and resolution. In the event that any constituent market resolves to "Other," this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve according to the sources named in the two markets linked above.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Serbia and Bulgaria elections tracks the current odds of various outcomes, including who will become Prime Minister in each country. You can view the price history of these predictions, allowing you to see how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $426, and the total volume traded to date, which is $7,022. This provides a clear picture of market activity and where traders are focusing their attention regarding the upcoming elections.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of current voter intent, this market aggregates the informed opinions of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to factors polls may not fully account for, such as voter turnout, strategic voting, or unforeseen events. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming your own assessment of the likely results of the Serbia and Bulgaria elections.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results announced by the electoral commissions of both Serbia and Bulgaria, determining the winning candidates and the composition of their respective governments. The outcome will be assessed based on who is officially appointed as Prime Minister in each country following the elections, as reported by reliable news sources and official government announcements.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected developments in the political campaigns, such as major scandals or policy announcements, could shift voter sentiment and alter the perceived probabilities of different outcomes. Significant economic news, shifts in international relations impacting the region, or even major gaffes by leading candidates could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any changes to polling data, or the release of new polling information, could cause traders to reassess their positions and adjust their predictions in this market.