TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 4:22 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election in Brazil, forecasting whether Jerônimo Rodrigues will win. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket and Kalshi indicates a 99.4% chance of this outcome. Resolution will be based on the official results reported by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) following the election, scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a potential runoff on October 25, 2026. Keep an eye on the official candidate lists published by the TSE as they become available, as these will solidify the field before the election.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket includes numerous placeholder candidates and an 'other' option, while Kalshi focuses on a defined list of candidates. This creates a scope difference in potential outcomes.Hero tip: Prioritize trading on candidates listed on both platforms to mitigate the risk of resolution to a placeholder or 'other' candidate exclusive to Polymarket.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on the candidate who wins the election, including a large number of placeholder candidates and an 'other' option. If no result is known by June 30, 2027, it resolves to 'Other'. "Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered."
- Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' only if one of the specifically listed candidates (ACM Neto, Ariel Capistrano, Aroldo Felix, Jerônimo Rodrigues, Maria Bona, Ronaldo Mansur) wins the election. No 'other' or placeholder options are explicitly considered.
Polymarket
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if the specified candidate wins the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election. Early resolution may occur following media consensus on a winner; otherwise, markets conclude based on official election results after certification.