TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
AZ-02 House Election Winner
⌛Ending Soon
opinion

Who will win the AZ-02 House election?

Oct 19, 2026, 10:22 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Eli Crane (R)

 - Opinion

Eli Crane (R) - Opinion

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:07h:25m

Eli Crane (R)

60%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 60¢ buys you 167 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $167 | Net Profit: $67 Multiplier: 1.67x | ROI: 67% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

Eli Crane (R)

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 7h 25m
Active
opinion

Jonathan Nez (D)

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 7h 25m
Active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Opinion

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Frequently asked questions

On Opinion, the dashboard for the AZ-02 House election tracks the implied probability of each candidate winning, represented as odds and price history. You can also view the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $0. This allows you to see how actively traders are betting on different outcomes. The total volume traded on this market is $0, providing insight into overall interest. The dashboard updates continuously as new trades are placed, offering a real-time view of market sentiment regarding the election.

Currently, the odds on Opinion for this market suggest a different outlook than recent polling data. While polls indicate a close race in the AZ-02 House election, the implied probabilities from this market show a higher likelihood of a particular outcome. It’s important to remember that prediction markets reflect not just who people *say* they will vote for, but who they are actually wagering on. This can incorporate information beyond traditional polling, such as fundraising data, candidate gaffes, and expert analysis. The current volume in this market is $0, indicating moderate interest from forecasters.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the AZ-02 House election is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results certified by election authorities. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events. The total volume for this market is currently $0, and it’s expected to increase as the election draws nearer.

Several factors could influence the outcome of this market, including shifts in public opinion, major campaign events, and unexpected news developments related to the candidates. The level of voter turnout and any potential controversies surrounding the election could also play a significant role. As the election approaches, it’s likely that the trading volume will increase as more information becomes available and traders refine their predictions. Currently, the market reflects a dynamic assessment of these factors, with a total volume of $0.