TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
AZ-01 House Election Winner
⌛Ending Soon
opinion

Who will win the AZ-01 House election?

Oct 19, 2026, 10:22 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Jay Feely (R)

 - Opinion

Jay Feely (R) - Opinion

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:08h:29m

Jay Feely (R)

20%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 20¢ buys you 500 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $500 | Net Profit: $400 Multiplier: 5.00x | ROI: 400% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

Jay Feely (R)

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 8h 29m
Active
opinion

Amish Shah (D)

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 8h 29m
Active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Opinion

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Frequently asked questions

On Opinion, the dashboard for the AZ-01 House election tracks the implied probability of different candidates winning, represented as odds. It also displays the price history of the market, showing how these probabilities have changed over time. Currently, the total volume traded in this market is $0, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is shifting regarding the election outcome.

On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of each contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective belief of the market. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that the market price isn't determined by a central authority but emerges from the interactions of many individual traders, making it a dynamic and responsive indicator of election sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results certified by election authorities for the AZ-01 House election. The candidate who receives the most votes in the official count will be declared the winner, and that outcome will determine the settlement of this market. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major campaign events, such as debates or rallies, could shift voter sentiment and influence trading activity. Unexpected endorsements from prominent figures or significant policy announcements could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, any major news stories related to the candidates, such as scandals or controversies, could cause the market to react quickly. Changes in fundraising numbers or shifts in polling data are also likely to be closely watched by traders and could lead to price adjustments.