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Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?

Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM EST - Sep 30, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$95,267
Volume 24h:
$31,284N/A
Liquidity:
$130,782
45%
Open interest:
$14,905N/A

0-5

 - Polymarket

0-5 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 1, 2026

Time left: 01d:07h:59m

Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?

97%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 97.9¢ buys you 102 shares | Odds: 97% Total Payout: $102 | Net Profit: $2 Multiplier: 1.02x | ROI: 2% High Projected APY: 4,667%
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0-5

Trade
97%
Yes 97.9¢No 3.6¢
1.5¢
$16,468
$27,309
33%
74%
N/A
1d 7h 59m
active
polymarket

5-10

Trade
2%
8%
Yes 2.6¢No 98.4¢
1¢
$20,652
$27,587
64%
96%
N/A
1d 7h 59m
active
polymarket

20-25

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.8¢
0.7¢
$20,240
$6,197
72%
120%
N/A
1d 7h 59m
active
polymarket

15-20

Trade
0%
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.9¢
0.7¢
$19,868
$7,205
94%
152%
N/A
1d 7h 59m
active
polymarket

10-15

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$20,512
$10,797
49%
60%
N/A
1d 7h 59m
active
polymarket

30+

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.8¢
—
$12,708
$5,457
21%
73%
N/A
1d 7h 59m
active
polymarket

25-30

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$20,334
$10,717
41%
71%
N/A
1d 7h 59m
active
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.

Frequently asked questions

The Strait of Hormuz shipping market dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $30,293 for this event. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of different average daily transit levels through the strait by the end of September. This single-venue view updates continuously as bets are placed, giving you a snapshot of market sentiment without any cross-platform aggregation.

Currently, prediction market odds for this market imply a 97.2% probability for the top outcome, which differs noticeably from typical sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks often price in broader risk factors and broader timelines, while this market focuses exclusively on the precise average daily transits through the strait by Oct 1, 2026. Traders here react to geopolitical developments, shipping data releases, and regional tensions that directly affect transit volumes, often moving faster than sportsbook adjustments.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the price through a decentralized betting pool with a total volume of $95,280. The current top outcome reflects collective expectations about shipping activity by the end of September, adjusted for new information such as regional security updates or oil flow reports. Prices shift whenever new bets are placed, capturing the latest market sentiment without influence from other venues.

This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final average daily number of ships transiting the strait during September will be compared against the market’s defined ranges, and the matching category will be declared the winner. No complex calculations or proprietary data sources are involved — just publicly available shipping statistics.

Several signals could shift this market before Oct 1, 2026. Escalations in regional tensions, new sanctions, or major accidents in the strait might reduce transits and lift odds for lower ranges. Conversely, diplomatic breakthroughs or increased oil demand could drive transits higher. Weekly shipping reports, military patrol announcements, and oil inventory data all feed into trader decisions, often causing rapid price swings as new information arrives.