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Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
polymarket

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?

Volume:
$312,975

0-20

 - Polymarket

0-20 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 5, 2026

Closed: Aug 4, 9:12 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0-20

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$132,174
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

40-60

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$63,687
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20-40

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$56,140
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

60-80

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,928
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,046
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether the average daily transits of ships through the Strait of Hormuz will fall between 0 and 20 on July 31, with the current probability on Polymarket at 97.8% that it will, and 1.6% for the second outcome of between 20 and 40 transits. The resolution source is IMF Portwatch. Watch for the July 31, 2026 data release, which will determine the market outcome.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Strait of Hormuz shipping volume market tracks real-time odds on the average daily number of vessel transits through one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints by the end of July. The dashboard displays the current probability of outcomes, historical price movements, and trading activity for this geopolitical and energy-focused event. Traders use this market to hedge exposure to Middle East shipping disruptions, energy supply shocks, and regional tensions that could affect global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks operate on fundamentally different principles. Sportsbooks set fixed odds and manage risk through betting limits and margin; prediction markets like this one allow traders to buy and sell shares dynamically, with prices reflecting real-time consensus. Unlike sportsbooks, prediction markets reward accurate forecasting of non-sporting events—such as shipping volumes and geopolitical outcomes—where no traditional bookmaker exists. This market aggregates dispersed knowledge from traders worldwide, often producing sharper probability estimates than analyst surveys or institutional forecasts alone.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling shares of competing outcomes, with each share worth $1 if that outcome occurs and $0 otherwise. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current odds reflect the collective belief of active traders about whether average daily transits will fall within the 40–60 range by month-end. Prices move continuously as new information arrives—such as regional incidents, sanctions changes, or shipping reports—allowing traders to enter or exit positions at any time before resolution.

This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether the average number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the final days of July matches the specified range. Traders should monitor official shipping data, maritime authority reports, and geopolitical developments in the weeks leading up to the close to assess how likely this outcome remains.

Major catalysts include geopolitical escalations or de-escalations in the Persian Gulf, new sanctions or trade agreements affecting Iran, military incidents, tanker attacks, or shifts in global oil demand. Shipping reports from the Suez Canal Authority, Lloyd's List, and maritime intelligence firms provide real-time transit data that traders monitor closely. Unexpected supply disruptions, OPEC announcements, or changes in regional stability could all trigger sharp price swings as traders reassess the likelihood of hitting the 40–60 average transit threshold by month-end.