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Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
polymarket

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?

Volume:
$51,688

<25

 - Polymarket

<25 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 9, 2026

Closed: Sep 9, 2:20 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

<25

View
100%
76%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,895
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

25-29

View
0%
75%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,144
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30-34

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,571
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,619
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35-39

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,459
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard shows the current odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $12,629 for the Bab el-Mandeb shipping traffic market. It provides a real-time view of trader sentiment and market activity, helping users gauge expectations for how many ships will transit the strait by the end of August.

On Polymarket, this market reflects trader sentiment rather than traditional sportsbook lines. While sportsbooks may offer odds based on broader shipping forecasts or historical patterns, prediction market odds capture real-time betting activity specific to the Bab el-Mandeb shipping traffic market. The difference can be notable, especially when geopolitical developments shift trader expectations. Sportsbook odds often include broader risk assessments and may lag behind rapid market adjustments. Traders should compare both sources to identify potential mispricings or shifts in market perception as Aug 31, 2026 approaches.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders continuously update the probability based on new information about naval movements, regional stability, and global trade flows. The current implied chance—reflecting the average price of the top outcome—can shift rapidly with each significant event or news report. Volume of $12,629 over the last 24 hours shows how actively participants are engaging with this market. As we near Aug 31, 2026, pricing will become more volatile, driven by the latest data on ship transit counts.

This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once official shipping logs and credible maritime reporting verify the exact number of vessels that passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by the specified date. The figure will be drawn from authoritative transport and logistics sources.

Several key signals could impact this market before Aug 31, 2026. Escalations in regional tensions, new naval blockades, or major infrastructure disruptions would likely increase transit counts, pushing odds toward higher outcomes. Conversely, diplomatic resolutions or improved safety measures could reduce ship numbers. Global trade slowdowns or seasonal patterns might also influence volumes. Traders should monitor shipping industry reports, geopolitical news wires, and official maritime authority updates for early warning signs that could shift market expectations dramatically in the coming weeks.