TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track whether the Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUDUSD) exchange rate will exceed specific thresholds at a precise moment. The outcome depends solely on the rate observed at the exact closing time, without considering any subsequent changes.
All markets resolve based on the AUDUSD exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on October 9, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold; if the rate exceeds its respective threshold at that moment, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate are disregarded. Values are rounded to four decimal places, and if Pyth lacks data for the exact time, the most recent available value is used. The resolution strictly adheres to the specified thresholds and timing, ensuring consistency across all markets.
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of informed opinions. Discrepancies can arise from differing risk tolerances, access to information, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. It's common to see this market anticipate outcomes that diverge from consensus analyst expectations, potentially offering valuable insights beyond conventional financial analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different AUDUSD price ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that price range being the correct one at the specified time. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds based on their own research and beliefs, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the potential AUDUSD price. The market efficiently incorporates new information as it becomes available, adjusting prices accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the AUDUSD exchange rate at 5:00 PM EDT on October 9th is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle to the value of 100 minus the absolute difference between the final AUDUSD price and the market’s midpoint. This means the closer the actual price is to the midpoint, the higher the payout for those who predicted correctly. The outcome is determined by a publicly available, authoritative source for the AUDUSD exchange rate.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 9, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases from either Australia or the United States, such as inflation reports, employment figures, or GDP growth, could trigger substantial price movements. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global trade tensions or political instability, also have the potential to impact currency valuations. Furthermore, any surprise announcements from the Reserve Bank of Australia or the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy could drive significant activity in this market.