TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Who will win the Arizona Governor election?
Katie Hobbs (D)
- Predict
Katie Hobbs (D) - Predict
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:01h:10m
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
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Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Predict
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Frequently asked questions
On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing each potential outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular candidate, the price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of the race.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results announced by the relevant election authorities for the Arizona Governor election. The candidate who receives the most votes, as certified by these authorities, will be declared the winner and determine the outcome of this market. It's important to note that recounts or legal challenges may affect the timing of final resolution.
Several key events could significantly impact this market. Major campaign events, such as debates or rallies, could shift voter sentiment and influence trading activity. Significant news coverage, particularly regarding scandals or policy positions, could also cause price fluctuations. Unexpected endorsements from influential figures or substantial changes in fundraising numbers could also move the market. Finally, the release of new polling data, even if it differs from current market prices, could prompt traders to reassess their positions and adjust their bets.
