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Who will win Arizona Governor in Maricopa County?
Katie Hobbs (D)
- Polymarket
Katie Hobbs (D) - Polymarket
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:02h:12m
Will the Democrats win Maricopa County in the Arizona governor race in 2026?
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Description
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Maricopa County in the general election for Governor of Arizona, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Arizona, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Maricopa County.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Maricopa County in the general election for Governor of Arizona, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Arizona, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Maricopa County.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the odds on this market reflect a different outlook than traditional polling data for the Arizona Governor election. Polling averages suggest a close race, but the implied probabilities on Polymarket indicate a potentially different outcome. It's important to remember that prediction markets aggregate information from a diverse set of participants, potentially incorporating factors not fully captured in polls, such as fundraising data, expert analysis, and real-time events. This can lead to divergences between prediction market prices and polling averages, offering a unique perspective on the likely winner of the election. The volume of this market is currently $19,292.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. Currently, the total volume traded in this market is $264 over the last 24 hours, indicating active interest and ongoing price discovery. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new developments and provide a real-time assessment of the election’s potential results.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the Maricopa County portion of the Arizona Governor election is verified against credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official election results as reported by relevant authorities and widely accepted by the media. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events. The current volume of this market is $19,292, indicating substantial participation.
Several factors could influence the outcome of this market, including major campaign events, shifts in public opinion, and unexpected news developments. Economic conditions, candidate debates, and endorsements from influential figures can all play a role in shaping voter preferences. Additionally, external events such as national political trends or unforeseen crises could impact the election's trajectory. The market’s price will continuously adjust to reflect these changing dynamics, providing a real-time assessment of the evolving probabilities. The 24-hour trading volume for this market is $264.
