TOTAL VOLUME:

$115.9b

24H VOL:

$69,163,134

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,351,118,393

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,116,872,131

312,557

Markets across

30,555

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,352

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Anthropic’s valuation end of September 2026?
Other
polymarket
kalshi

Anthropic’s valuation end of September 2026?

Total volume:
$67,820
Volume 24h:
$5,093
33%
Liquidity:
$2,608
2%
Open interest:
$36,576
9%

$1.00-$1.25T

 - Polymarket

$1.00-$1.25T - Polymarket

88%

+20%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

40%50%60%70%80%90%

No volume data

Aug 17

Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Vol.

$0.0

·

Resolves Sep 30, 2026

Will Anthropic’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.25T at the end of September 2026?

88%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 88¢ buys you 114 shares | Odds: 88% Total Payout: $114 | Net Profit: $14 Multiplier: 1.14x | ROI: 14% | APY: 253% Low liquidity 37 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This event group tracks Anthropic's valuation at the end of September 2026 on Polymarket and Anthropic's market share performance on OpenRouter by model author week ending Aug 16, 2026 on Kalshi. The Polymarket markets focus on private valuation brackets using NPM data, while Kalshi markets are based on OpenRouter market share thresholds.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamentally different metrics being measured (valuation vs. market share) with separate resolution sources and timeframesHero tip: Treat these as separate bets measuring different aspects of Anthropic's performance. Valuation markets depend on financing rounds or public market data, while market share markets depend on user adoption metrics. No assumed correlation between the two.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on NPM private market valuation or public market capitalization if Anthropic goes public before September 2026. Uses specific valuation brackets with $250B increments from $500B to $2.25T.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on OpenRouter Market Share by model author week ending Aug 16, 2026. Uses thresholds from above 3% to above 5.5% in 0.5% increments.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for the last trading day of the specified month. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the last trading day of the specified month by 1:00 PM ET on the day following the last trading day of the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the last trading day of the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider the company’s public market capitalization on the last trading day of the specified month. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data. The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Kalshi

If Anthropic scores above 3% on OpenRouter Market Share by model author week ending Aug 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Anthropic scores above 3.5% on OpenRouter Market Share by model author week ending Aug 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Anthropic scores above 4% on OpenRouter Market Share by model author week ending Aug 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Anthropic scores above 4.5% on OpenRouter Market Share by model author week ending Aug 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Anthropic scores above 5% on OpenRouter Market Share by model author week ending Aug 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Anthropic scores above 5.5% on OpenRouter Market Share by model author week ending Aug 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Anthropic valuation market aggregates real-time data from multiple platforms, showing how traders price the potential worth of Anthropic by Sep 30, 2026. It displays current odds, volume of $67,820, and 24-hour volume at $10,545, letting users see where the market stands on this prediction. The view updates continuously, reflecting bets placed on Polymarket and Kalshi as new information emerges about the company’s performance, funding rounds, or market conditions that could affect its valuation.

This market resolves around Sep 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final valuation will be determined by authoritative financial disclosures or widely accepted business valuations, matching the criteria set for this market.

Several signals could shift this market before Sep 30, 2026. Major announcements — such as new funding rounds, product launches, or partnerships — will directly affect perceptions of Anthropic’s value. Broader tech-sector trends, regulatory developments, or shifts in investor sentiment toward AI firms may also sway odds. Competitor performance and macroeconomic factors like interest-rate changes can indirectly influence the outlook, making this market responsive to both company-specific news and wider industry conditions through Polymarket and Kalshi trading activity.