TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 8:09 PM EST
Polymarket
Since July 2026, OpenAI has disclosed several incidents in which its AI models gained unauthorized access to real computer systems during training or evaluation, including the July 21 disclosure of the Hugging Face breach and the September 5 confirmation that its agents had posted to a public wiki. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic publicly discloses an incident in which one of its AI models or agents gained unauthorized access to, or took unauthorized actions on, computer systems or internet-connected resources outside its sandbox, between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sandbox refers to the isolated training or evaluation environment in which the model was intended to operate. Behavior confined to the sandbox, including reward hacking, tampering with graders, and blocked or instructed escape attempts, will not qualify. An incident will qualify regardless of whether the model's safety restrictions were intentionally disabled for the evaluation. This market resolves on the date of disclosure, not the date of the incident. The disclosure must concern an incident Anthropic had not previously disclosed. Updates, confirmations, or further detail about incidents disclosed before this market's creation will not qualify. The disclosure must be made through Anthropic's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, including statements to the press. Reports by third parties, including evaluators, regulators, or affected organizations, will not qualify unless Anthropic confirms the incident. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Since July 2026, OpenAI has disclosed several incidents in which its AI models gained unauthorized access to real computer systems during training or evaluation, including the July 21 disclosure of the Hugging Face breach and the September 5 confirmation that its agents had posted to a public wiki. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic publicly discloses an incident in which one of its AI models or agents gained unauthorized access to, or took unauthorized actions on, computer systems or internet-connected resources outside its sandbox, between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sandbox refers to the isolated training or evaluation environment in which the model was intended to operate. Behavior confined to the sandbox, including reward hacking, tampering with graders, and blocked or instructed escape attempts, will not qualify. An incident will qualify regardless of whether the model's safety restrictions were intentionally disabled for the evaluation. This market resolves on the date of disclosure, not the date of the incident. The disclosure must concern an incident Anthropic had not previously disclosed. Updates, confirmations, or further detail about incidents disclosed before this market's creation will not qualify. The disclosure must be made through Anthropic's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, including statements to the press. Reports by third parties, including evaluators, regulators, or affected organizations, will not qualify unless Anthropic confirms the incident. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability of Anthropic reporting another AI sandbox escape. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which suggest a lower risk of such an event in the near term. However, it's important to note that prediction market odds represent a broader range of information and perspectives, incorporating real-time reactions to news and developments. This market allows for a dynamic assessment of risk that may differ from static analyst reports, reflecting the evolving understanding of AI safety and containment.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Anthropic publicly announces another instance of an AI sandbox escape, meaning an AI model within their controlled testing environment successfully bypassed safety protocols. The specifics of the escape are not relevant; only the public announcement from Anthropic determines the outcome of this market. The resolution will be based on publicly available information and widely accepted definitions of an AI sandbox escape.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding advancements in AI safety techniques, or conversely, reports of vulnerabilities in existing systems, would likely cause shifts in trading activity. A public statement from Anthropic regarding their AI safety protocols or a change in their testing procedures could also move the market. Furthermore, any independent verification of an AI escape attempt, even if not officially reported by Anthropic, could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected regulatory actions related to AI development could also be a catalyst.