TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 1, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether the combined private valuations of Anthropic and OpenAI will exceed Meta's public market capitalization on June 30, 2026. On Polymarket, the outcome that OpenAI and Anthropic's combined valuation surpasses Meta's market cap is priced at 93.5%. Resolution will use NPM data published for Anthropic and OpenAI valuations alongside Meta's official exchange trading price and share count as of June 30, 2026, with final data expected by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Meta's market capitalization on June 30, 2026, or to "Meta" if Meta's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Meta's public market capitalization at resolution, each outcome will resolve to 0.5. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
The market resolves on Jul 1, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by comparing the valuations of Anthropic plus OpenAI combined against Meta's valuation as of June 30. Resolution hinges on obtaining reliable, verifiable valuation data for all three entities on that specific date. This may include the latest funding rounds, public filings, or other authoritative sources available at resolution time. Traders should monitor announcements from these companies leading up to the deadline, as major funding events, acquisitions, or market shifts could significantly impact final valuations.
Key catalysts include funding announcements or new investment rounds for Anthropic, OpenAI, or Meta, which directly affect valuation. Breakthroughs in AI model capabilities, product launches, or regulatory developments could shift investor sentiment toward one group or the other. Earnings reports and financial performance updates from Meta provide hard data on its business trajectory. Strategic partnerships, talent moves, or competitive announcements in the AI sector may influence perceived value. Broader macroeconomic conditions and tech sector sentiment also play a role. Traders monitor these signals continuously to adjust positions ahead of the June 30 valuation snapshot.