TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
polymarket

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Jun 1, 2026, 5:07 PM EST - Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$1,679,724
Volume 24h:
$101,680
177%
Liquidity:
$184,938
55%
Open interest:
$119,213N/A

$1.75–$2.0T

 - Polymarket

$1.75–$2.0T - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

28%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 29¢ buys you 345 shares | Odds: 28% Total Payout: $345 | Net Profit: $245 Multiplier: 3.45x | ROI: 245% | APY: 177% 443 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$1.75–$2.0T

Trade
28%
3%
Yes 29¢No 72¢
1¢
$14,971
$269,232
9%
57%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

$2.0–$2.25T

Trade
19%
9%
Yes 19¢No 81.1¢
0.1¢
$19,632
$321,464
3%
22%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

$1.5–$1.75T

Trade
17%
Yes 17¢No 83.2¢
0.2¢
$22,044
$183,681
12%
37%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

$2.25–$2.5T

Trade
12%
6%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
1¢
$28,829
$242,740
10%
20%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

$1.25–$1.5T

Trade
5%
Yes 5.3¢No 94.9¢
0.2¢
$14,828
$128,398
5%
17%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

$2.5–$2.75T

Trade
5%
3%
Yes 6.2¢No 95.8¢
2¢
$14,707
$126,100
3%
17%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

$3.0T+

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 3.4¢No 96.7¢
0.1¢
$22,543
$96,108
2%
17%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

<$1.25T

Trade
3%
Yes 2.9¢No 97.2¢
0.1¢
$14,825
$152,060
8%
16%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

No IPO by December 31, 2027

Trade
3%
Yes 2.7¢No 97.7¢
0.4¢
$16,891
$89,190
4%
19%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

$2.75–$3.0T

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 2.4¢No 97.9¢
0.3¢
$15,667
$70,751
3%
27%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
Total markets: 10

Description

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a range of potential closing market caps for Anthropic, and it's useful to compare this to what financial analysts are projecting. While analyst forecasts vary, many anticipate a valuation in the hundreds of billions of dollars. This market allows traders to express their collective judgment, which may differ from the average analyst estimate due to factors like differing assumptions about growth rates, competitive pressures, and overall market conditions. It’s important to remember that prediction markets reflect a weighted average of many individual opinions, potentially offering a more dynamic and up-to-date view than static analyst reports.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes for Anthropic’s IPO closing market cap. The price of each contract reflects the probability that outcome will occur, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus view. The market’s depth – the volume of contracts available at different price points – indicates the level of confidence traders have in each outcome. Currently, the most actively traded contracts relate to valuations between $2.0T and $2.25T.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing market cap of Anthropic on its IPO day will be used to determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from reputable financial news sources and exchange filings. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the result, reflecting the actual market valuation at the time of the IPO. Traders should monitor news sources leading up to Jan 1, 2028 for updates on the IPO process.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding Anthropic’s financial performance, such as revenue growth or profitability updates, would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in the broader market conditions, particularly the performance of other tech IPOs or overall investor sentiment, could also influence trading activity. Regulatory developments or news related to competition in the AI space could also play a role. Finally, any shifts in analyst ratings or price targets for Anthropic could prompt traders to reassess their positions, leading to changes in the odds within this market.