TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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American Express cards-in-force in Q3
kalshi

What is the number of American Express cards-in-force in Q3?

Jul 27, 2026, 8:07 PM EST - Feb 12, 2027, 11:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$177,434
Volume 24h:
$6,916
862%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$40,647
16%

Above 154.5 million

 - Kalshi

Above 154.5 million - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Feb 13, 2027

Will American Express Company report Above 154.5 million cards-in-force (total) in Q3 2026?

96%chance
Amount

$

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 154.5 million

Trade
96%
Yes 97¢No 4¢
1¢
N/A
$10,424
0%
11%
$1,029
4mo
active
kalshi

Above 155 million

Trade
91%
Yes 91¢No 10¢
1¢
N/A
$7,855
0%
36%
$2,316
4mo
active
kalshi

Above 155.5 million

Trade
73%
Yes 73¢No 28¢
1¢
N/A
$24,769
0.16%
51%
$3,235
4mo
active
kalshi

Above 156 million

Trade
27%
Yes 27¢No 76¢
3¢
N/A
$18,628
0.98%
13%
$4,707
4mo
active
kalshi

Above 156.5 million

Trade
8%
5%
Yes 10¢No 92¢
2¢
N/A
$20,789
13%
20%
$5,823
4mo
active
kalshi

Above 157 million

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$20,664
0%
48%
$5,607
4mo
active
kalshi

Above 157.5 million

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$16,553
0%
0%
$2,979
4mo
active
kalshi

Above 158.5 million

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$24,937
0%
2%
$6,441
4mo
active
kalshi

Above 159 million

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$16,667
35%
35%
$4,458
4mo
active
kalshi

Above 158 million

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$16,148
0%
256%
$4,052
4mo
active
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks the total number of active American Express cards during the third quarter of 2026. The outcome depends on whether the reported figure exceeds specific thresholds. Higher thresholds correspond to more stringent conditions for a positive resolution.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple sequential thresholds for American Express Company's total cards-in-force reported for Q3 2026. Each threshold represents a progressively higher count, with markets resolving positively (Yes) if the reported figure surpasses the respective threshold. The structure allows participants to bet on various levels of performance, from just above 154.5 million up to above 159 million cards. All thresholds are evaluated against the same official quarterly report, and the resolution is determined solely by whether the reported number exceeds each specific threshold, with no partial or combined outcomes considered. Secondary rules, if any, would apply uniformly across all markets but are not specified here.

Frequently asked questions

Compared to analyst forecasts, this market’s odds often reflect a blend of consensus expectations and trader sentiment. While analysts may issue detailed reports with specific targets, prediction market odds capture a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of likely outcomes. Discrepancies between the two can signal where market participants diverge from traditional research forecasts.

This market resolves around Feb 13, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will be based on official American Express financial disclosures for the third quarter, matching the market's specified calculation rules.