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American Airlines passenger load factor in Q3
kalshi

What will be the American Airlines passenger load factor in Q3?

Volume:
$187,047

Above 82%

 - Kalshi

Above 82% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 1:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 82%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,194
N/A
N/A
$4,194
3mo 2w 4d
Yes
kalshi

Above 82.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,700
N/A
N/A
$2,700
3mo 2w 4d
Yes
kalshi

Above 83%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,700
N/A
N/A
$2,700
3mo 2w 4d
Yes
kalshi

Above 86.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,078
N/A
N/A
$13,662
3mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Above 85%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,100
N/A
N/A
$4,006
3mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Above 84%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,886
N/A
N/A
$6,597
3mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Above 88%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,846
N/A
N/A
$10,044
3mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Above 87%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,281
N/A
N/A
$11,262
3mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Above 87.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,171
N/A
N/A
$8,167
3mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Above 85.5%

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,959
N/A
N/A
$4,079
3mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Above 86%

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,525
N/A
N/A
$4,158
3mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Above 83.5%

View
0%
87%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,519
N/A
N/A
$3,866
3mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Above 84.5%

View
0%
46%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,089
N/A
N/A
$3,097
3mo 2w 4d
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This event tracks American Airlines' efficiency in filling its available seats with paying passengers during the third quarter of 2026. A higher passenger load factor indicates strong demand and operational effectiveness, reflecting how well the airline utilizes its capacity. The outcome depends on whether the reported percentage exceeds specific thresholds.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on American Airlines Group Inc.'s reported passenger load factor for Q3 2026. Multiple markets correspond to progressively higher thresholds, each resolving to 'Yes' if the reported load factor exceeds its specific threshold. The highest threshold that is met determines the resolution across all markets, with any threshold above 83.5% potentially leading to a 'Yes' outcome. All markets share the same reporting period and source requirements, ensuring consistency in evaluation.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the American Airlines load factor market shows real-time odds and price trends exclusively on Kalshi. It displays the current probability of different load factor outcomes, along with historical price movements and $34,260 24-hour volume. This single-venue view lets traders monitor how market sentiment evolves without cross-platform comparisons. The data reflects only what Kalshi users are betting on, giving insight into where speculation is focused as the resolution date approaches.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations. While analysts may incorporate a wide range of financial metrics and guidance, traders on Kalshi react quickly to news, adjusting probabilities based on real-time data and sentiment. This can lead to divergence or alignment, depending on recent events and market trends.

This market resolves around Feb 19, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final load factor will be calculated and announced based on official airline data, after which the market settles according to the terms set by Kalshi.

Several signals could shift expectations before Feb 19, 2027. Quarterly earnings reports from American Airlines, broader airline industry updates, and macroeconomic indicators like fuel prices or travel demand trends will all influence trader sentiment. Any major disruptions—such as labor disputes, regulatory changes, or unexpected events affecting air travel—could cause rapid price swings. Additionally, competitor performance and seasonal booking patterns may reshape market outlooks, driving volatility in this market as resolution nears.