TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 1:02 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if public access to America.gov is removed in the United States for any reason between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A removal means the website is no longer publicly accessible at america.gov. Redirection of america.gov to another domain will qualify. Changes to the site’s content, features, or branding, and the removal of individual pages, tools, or functions while the site otherwise remains accessible, will not qualify. Outages, scheduled maintenance, capacity limitations, and other access disruptions due to technical issues will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the White House, the America.gov website, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if public access to America.gov is removed in the United States for any reason between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A removal means the website is no longer publicly accessible at america.gov. Redirection of america.gov to another domain will qualify. Changes to the site’s content, features, or branding, and the removal of individual pages, tools, or functions while the site otherwise remains accessible, will not qualify. Outages, scheduled maintenance, capacity limitations, and other access disruptions due to technical issues will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the White House, the America.gov website, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a different outlook than traditional polling data regarding the removal of America.gov. While polls may indicate public opinion on related foreign policy issues, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, factoring in a wider range of information and potential geopolitical developments. The difference in perspectives highlights how prediction markets can offer a unique signal, distinct from surveys focused on stated preferences. This market is a forward-looking assessment, not a historical record of sentiment.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of America.gov being removed by the resolution date. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The current price indicates the market's aggregated assessment of the likelihood of removal, and is influenced by news, analysis, and events related to U.S. foreign policy and digital infrastructure.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether America.gov has been officially removed and is no longer accessible to the public by that date. The platform will look to established news sources and official government statements to determine if the website has been taken down, with the outcome determined by the website’s accessibility status. The focus is on objective verification of the website's availability.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Major shifts in U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding public diplomacy and international communication strategies, would be key catalysts. Announcements about budget cuts affecting the State Department or decisions to overhaul U.S. digital presence could also have a substantial impact. Unexpected geopolitical events or changes in the political climate surrounding U.S. foreign relations could also influence trader sentiment and, consequently, the price of shares in this market. Any official statements regarding the future of America.gov would be closely watched.
