TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 2:36 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amazonas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Polymarket
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amazonas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, odds for this market often move in response to new polling data, but they can diverge due to trader expectations about turnout, campaign dynamics, and late-breaking news. While polls provide a snapshot of voter preferences, prediction markets incorporate betting behavior that may price in different probabilities, especially when polls are tight or there’s uncertainty about which candidate might attract decisive voter blocks.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this market is priced through trader activity, where participants buy and sell contracts based on their expectations for the election’s outcome. The current implied probability reflects the collective bet of market participants, adjusting continuously with new information and trading volume. Liquidity levels and open interest also shape the price, influencing how responsive it is to shifts in sentiment or data.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination hinges on official vote tallies and certified announcements from electoral authorities, ensuring an accurate reflection of the actual race standings.
Key debates, polling updates, candidate endorsements, and financial developments can all shift this market. Major news coverage, scandals, or changes in voter registration can also influence trader sentiment. As the election approaches, any event that alters perceptions of competitiveness or candidate viability is likely to drive volatility and adjust market odds.
