TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$181,481,432

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,827,991,073

405,996

Markets across

40,551

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,368

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Amazonas Governor Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Amazonas Governor election?

Volume:
$177,860

Omar Aziz

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 25, 2026

Closed: Oct 25, 11:14 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Omar Aziz

View
100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$58,926
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Omar Aziz

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,436
N/A
N/A
$3,916
1y
Yes
polymarket

Professora Maria do Carmo

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47,251
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Professora Maria do Carmo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,161
N/A
N/A
$2,168
1y
No
kalshi

Cabo Daciolo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,443
N/A
N/A
$6,230
Settled
No
polymarket

Cabo Daciolo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,031
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Roberto Cidade

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,161
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Roberto Cidade

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,624
N/A
N/A
$544
Settled
No
kalshi

Gilberto Vasconcelos

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,001
N/A
N/A
$6,045
Settled
No
polymarket

Gilberto Vasconcelos

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,249
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Isael Munduruku

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,479
N/A
N/A
$6,025
Settled
No
polymarket

Isael Munduruku

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,978
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

David Almeida

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,190
N/A
N/A
$5,125
Settled
No
polymarket

David Almeida

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,931
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 1

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 2

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 3

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 4

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N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 5

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N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 6

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N/A
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—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
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Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 7

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N/A
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—
N/A
N/A
N/A
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Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 8

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N/A
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N/A
N/A
N/A
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Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 9

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N/A
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—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 10

View
N/A
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—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 11

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 33

Description

This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election in Brazil. The election is expected to take place in October 2026, potentially with a runoff in November if no candidate secures a majority in the first round. Resolution will be based on official results from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve based on the same primary source – the official results of the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election as reported by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE).Primary resolution logic: Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) (www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election.
  • If no candidate receives a majority of valid votes in the first round, a runoff election will be held, and the winner of the runoff will be the resolved outcome.
  • If the election result is not known by June 30, 2027, the market will resolve to 'Other'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) will determine the winner according to Brazilian election law. The market will resolve based on the TSE's decision.
  • Election Delay: If the election is significantly delayed beyond the expected timeframe, the resolution date will be adjusted, but no later than June 30, 2027. After this date, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
  • Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws before the election, their market will likely be settled to zero, but this does not affect the resolution of the overall winner market.
Timing: The market will resolve as soon as the official results of the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election are announced by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE), or by June 30, 2027, if the results are not available sooner.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The Amazonas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Kalshi

Markets resolve to Yes if the named candidate is ultimately declared the winner of the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election. Resolution can happen prematurely when major media outlets agree on a winner, with definitive settlement otherwise occurring after authority-certified election results are published.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *stake* on those preferences, potentially revealing more about true beliefs. Polling data can be influenced by biases or strategic responses, whereas the financial incentive in this market encourages participants to be as accurate as possible. It’s important to note that both methods have limitations, and comparing them can offer a more nuanced understanding of the Amazonas governor election.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading fees, and liquidity, which can all influence price discovery. Differences in market design, such as contract specifications or trading limits, can also contribute to discrepancies. Furthermore, differing interpretations of available information or varying levels of risk aversion among traders on each platform can lead to price divergence in this market. These variations are normal and reflect the dynamic nature of prediction markets.