TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 4:39 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the second round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election as published by the Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The second round of the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the second round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election as published by the Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a different outcome than recent polling averages for the Amazonas governor election. While polls indicate a close race, this market reflects a stronger expectation of a decisive win for one candidate. It's important to remember that polls capture a snapshot in time and are subject to methodological limitations, while prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd and continuously update based on new information. This difference may reflect differing interpretations of the available data or unique insights held by market participants.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official margin of victory announced by the electoral authorities in Amazonas. This market will reflect the difference in votes between the winning and losing candidates in the second round of the election. The final result will be determined by the official count and any subsequent legal challenges that are resolved by the appropriate authorities.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major developments in the campaigns of the candidates, such as significant endorsements or unexpected policy announcements, could shift voter sentiment. Additionally, any new polling data released could influence market participants’ beliefs. Unexpected economic news or political events in Brazil could also have an impact. Finally, any controversies or scandals involving the candidates could dramatically alter the odds, as traders react to the changing information landscape surrounding the Amazonas governor election.
