TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 7:13 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amapá is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Polymarket
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amapá is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Frequently asked questions
Compared to polling averages, this market often reflects a more nuanced outlook, incorporating factors beyond raw voter intent such as campaign momentum, regional dynamics, and trader risk appetite. While polls offer a snapshot of voter preferences, traders may price in shifts that surveys have not yet captured, especially in smaller or less nationally covered races.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the odds through buying and selling contracts that represent either a candidate finishing second or not. The current implied chance reflects the balance of these positions, updated continuously as new trades occur. Volume of $24,337 shows the level of interest and liquidity supporting the price.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official tally of votes will determine the final ranking of candidates, and this market settles based on who ends up in the second position after all valid ballots are counted.
Several signals or events could shift this market before it resolves on Oct 5, 2026. Polling updates specifically tracking second-place standings in Amapá will heavily influence trader sentiment. Major campaign developments—such as endorsements, scandals, or shifts in voter outreach—may also cause rapid price changes. Media coverage highlighting contender performance, debates, or economic announcements tied to individual candidates can create volatility. As the election approaches, any surge in betting activity reflecting new public data will likely move this market sharply.
