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Alaska Air passenger load factor in Q3
kalshi

What will Alaska Air's passenger load factor be in Q3?

Volume:
$25,524

Above 82%

 - Kalshi

Above 82% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 10:31 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 82%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,222
N/A
N/A
$835
3mo 2w 4d
Yes
kalshi

Above 82.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,612
N/A
N/A
$832
3mo 2w 4d
Yes
kalshi

Above 84%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,943
N/A
N/A
$971
3mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Above 84.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,622
N/A
N/A
$1,791
3mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Above 83.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,301
N/A
N/A
$1,472
3mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Above 85%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,123
N/A
N/A
$348
3mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Above 86.5%

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,037
N/A
N/A
$171
3mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Above 83%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$831
N/A
N/A
$210
3mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Above 86%

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$651
N/A
N/A
$179
3mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Above 85.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$182
N/A
N/A
$55
3mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Above 87%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2w 4d
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event tracks Alaska Air's operational efficiency by measuring how well the airline fills its available passenger seats in the third quarter of 2026. A higher passenger load factor indicates strong demand and capacity utilization, reflecting the airline's ability to maximize revenue from its fleet. The outcome depends on whether the reported load factor meets or exceeds specific thresholds.

Kalshi

The event evaluates Alaska Air Group Inc.'s passenger load factor for Q3 2026 against a series of ascending thresholds ranging from 82.0% to 87.0%. Each threshold represents a distinct market outcome, where the market resolves to 'Yes' if the reported load factor exceeds the corresponding percentage. The structure creates a tiered resolution framework, with higher thresholds offering more stringent criteria for a 'Yes' outcome. All markets share the same reporting period and carrier, ensuring consistency in the underlying data source. The final resolution will determine which, if any, of these thresholds are met, thereby settling all associated markets accordingly.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Alaska Air load factor market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $873. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different outcomes for the Alaska Air load factor market over the specified period, with updates reflecting market sentiment and trading activity.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations. While analysts may incorporate a wide range of financial metrics and guidance, traders on Kalshi continuously adjust positions based on real-time data, news, and sentiment, which can lead to differences in implied probabilities.

This market resolves around Feb 19, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final load factor will be determined by official Alaska Air financial statements or regulatory filings for the relevant quarter, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.

Several signals could influence this market before resolution, including Alaska Air's quarterly earnings releases, changes in travel demand due to economic conditions or seasonal factors, fuel price fluctuations, and any operational updates such as route adjustments or capacity changes. Geopolitical events or broader airline industry trends may also affect trader sentiment and shift market odds.