TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 1:36 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Polymarket
The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds in this market often reflect a different outlook than traditional polling averages. Traders incorporate factors beyond poll numbers, such as candidate fundraising, media coverage, and historical voting patterns, which can create divergence. While polls provide a snapshot of public opinion, market prices capture a broader betting consensus that may anticipate shifts not yet visible in surveys.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set prices through continuous bidding, with the top outcome’s chance displayed as a percentage. The current pricing reflects aggregated bets on who will win the Alagoas Governor seat, adjusted for liquidity and trader demand. Volume and recent price movements offer clues about shifting sentiment, while the market’s top outcome indicates the most likely result according to participants.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote count and official declaration of the winner determine the market’s settlement, aligning with widely accepted news sources and electoral authority announcements.
