TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 10:33 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election in Brazil. The election is scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a potential runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate achieves a majority in the first round. Resolution will be based on official results from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve based on the same core criteria: the winner of the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election as reported by the official Brazilian election authority.Primary resolution logic: Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) (www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes)Core resolution logic:
- The market resolves to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election.
- If no candidate receives a majority of valid votes in the first round, a runoff election will be held, and the winner of the runoff will be the resolved outcome.
- If the election result is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the official results from the TSE will determine the winner, and that outcome will be used for resolution.
- Disputed Results: If there are disputes over the election results, the market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the TSE, even if those results are contested by other parties.
Polymarket
The Acre gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Kalshi
If Alan Rick wins the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Dr. Luisinho wins the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Eudo Raffael wins the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mailza Assis wins the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Thor Dantas wins the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tião Bocalom wins the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on those preferences. This can lead to discrepancies, as market prices incorporate not only the likelihood of an outcome but also the perceived information advantage of informed traders. Historically, prediction markets have demonstrated a strong track record of accuracy, often outperforming polls, particularly in situations where information is fragmented or incentives to misreport are present. It's important to consider both sources of information when evaluating the potential outcome of the Acre Governor election.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, significant shifts in polling data, or unexpected campaign developments could all cause price fluctuations. Any controversies or allegations involving candidates could also move the market. Furthermore, economic news or events impacting the region could influence voter sentiment and, consequently, the market price. Keep an eye on media coverage, political analysis, and official statements from candidates and electoral authorities as the election approaches. A large change in volume, such as a spike to $84,660, could also indicate new information entering the market.