TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 4:46 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the second round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election as published by the Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The second round of the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the second round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election as published by the Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a strong likelihood of a particular outcome in this market, but it's important to consider how these probabilities align with traditional polling data. Polling averages often provide a snapshot of voter sentiment at a specific point in time, while this market reflects a continuous assessment of probabilities based on information available to traders. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like differing methodologies, weighting, and the incorporation of real-time events or insights not captured in polls. It’s useful to analyze both sources to gain a comprehensive understanding of the race.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the election’s outcome. The price of a contract directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by new information, shifts in sentiment, and trading activity, making it a dynamic indicator of expectations surrounding the Acre gubernatorial election.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results announced by the electoral authorities for the Acre gubernatorial election second round, specifically the margin of victory between the two candidates. The platform will verify these results against trusted sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts to contract holders accordingly. Traders should monitor official announcements as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major events like televised debates, significant endorsements from influential figures, or the release of new polling data could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected economic developments in the state of Acre, or national political events impacting voter preferences, could also play a role. Furthermore, any controversies or scandals involving the candidates could lead to rapid price adjustments in this market as traders reassess the probabilities of different outcomes. Monitoring news coverage and political analysis is key to understanding potential catalysts.
