TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 12:12 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track projected credit card spending trends for Abercrombie & Fitch in September 2026, using a year-over-year index to gauge consumer behavior and financial performance. The outcomes depend on whether spending exceeds specific thresholds, reflecting broader economic indicators and consumer preferences.
All markets resolve based on the first value reported by Carbon Arc for Abercrombie & Fitch's credit card spend index in September 2026. The index measures year-over-year changes, with 100 representing equal spending compared to the same month last year. Values above 100 signify growth, while values below 100 indicate a decline. Each market has a unique threshold; if the reported index exceeds the specified threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Post-settlement corrections or revisions by Carbon Arc will not alter the outcome. The data comes from Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, updated daily. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with Abercrombie & Fitch or ownership of related trademarks.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations. While analysts may incorporate a range of financial metrics and guidance, traders adjust prices based on current sentiment, recent news, and short-term expectations, which can lead to notable differences in implied probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will rely on officially released financial data that confirms Abercrombie & Fitch’s actual credit card spend for the September period, bringing closure to the market based on factual results.
Key signals that could shift this market include preliminary sales reports, earnings calls, economic indicators affecting consumer spending, and any major marketing campaigns or promotions from Abercrombie & Fitch. Unexpected news such as supply chain updates or changes in consumer behavior may also cause traders to adjust their positions as the resolution date approaches.