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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:02h:05m
Will Abdul El-Sayed run 0 to 3 points behind Jocelyn Benson?
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Description
The 2026 Michigan general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Abdul El-Sayed is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Michigan, and Jocelyn Benson is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Michigan. This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Abdul El-Sayed’s vote share in the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election falls below Jocelyn Benson’s vote share in the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election. If El-Sayed’s vote share exceeds Benson’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”. Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate. If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.” If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Michigan Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The 2026 Michigan general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Abdul El-Sayed is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Michigan, and Jocelyn Benson is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Michigan. This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Abdul El-Sayed’s vote share in the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election falls below Jocelyn Benson’s vote share in the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election. If El-Sayed’s vote share exceeds Benson’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”. Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate. If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.” If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Michigan Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages for the Michigan Secretary of State race. While polls aim to capture a snapshot of voter intent at a specific moment, this market reflects continuously updated beliefs based on a wider range of information, including polls, news events, and expert analysis. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the incentives of participants – poll respondents may not always be fully informed or truthful, while traders in this market have a financial stake in accurately predicting the outcome. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming an opinion.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes in the Michigan Secretary of State race. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of the race. The current implied probabilities are shaped by the supply and demand for these contracts, creating a market-driven forecast.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results announced by the Michigan Bureau of Elections following the November 2026 election. The market will determine the difference in vote share between Abdul El-Sayed and Jocelyn Benson, as reported by official sources. Traders should monitor news sources and official election results as the resolution date approaches to understand how the outcome will be determined and verified.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major endorsements from influential figures, significant fundraising announcements from either campaign, and shifts in broader political trends could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected news events, such as controversies or policy changes, could also cause price fluctuations. Additionally, the release of new public opinion polls, even if they differ from previous results, will likely influence trading activity in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the dynamics of the Michigan Secretary of State race.
