TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 5, 2026?
kalshi

7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 5, 2026?

Volume:
$20,315

4.96% or above

 - Kalshi

4.96% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.96% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,019
N/A
N/A
$3,019
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.02% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,819
N/A
N/A
$2,819
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.98% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,796
N/A
N/A
$2,463
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,463
N/A
N/A
$2,463
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.16% or above

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,271
N/A
N/A
$348
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.04% or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,235
N/A
N/A
$1,116
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.14% or above

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,084
N/A
N/A
$784
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.18% or above

View
100%
52%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$868
N/A
N/A
$224
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.1% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$494
N/A
N/A
$494
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.08% or above

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$272
N/A
N/A
$271
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.12% or above

View
100%
14%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$211
N/A
N/A
$211
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.06% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$49
N/A
N/A
$47
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.24% or above

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,810
N/A
N/A
$1,496
Settled
No
kalshi

5.2% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,289
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

5.22% or above

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$634
N/A
N/A
$231
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event tracks the performance of a key U.S. government bond on a specific future date. It reflects expectations about interest rate movements influenced by economic policies and market conditions. Outcomes depend on whether the bond's yield exceeds certain thresholds at the specified time.

Kalshi

This event consists of multiple markets, each with a distinct threshold for the par yield of the 7-year U.S. Treasury note as of October 5, 2026. For any given market to resolve to 'Yes,' the yield must exceed the specified threshold (e.g., 4.95%, 5.05%, etc.) on that date. All markets share a common expiration timeline: they close at the earlier of two times—either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day after the yield data is released for October 5, 2026, or one week following October 5, 2026. This structure allows participants to speculate on various potential yield levels, with each market offering a binary outcome based on whether the actual yield meets or exceeds its unique threshold. The cascading thresholds create a range of possible resolutions, enabling detailed market insights into yield expectations.