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416,910

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7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?
kalshi

7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?

Volume:
$18,232

4.8% or above

 - Kalshi

4.8% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.8% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$861
N/A
N/A
$861
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.74% or above

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$501
N/A
N/A
$501
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.72% or above

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$401
N/A
N/A
$401
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.76% or above

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$401
N/A
N/A
$401
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.78% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$101
N/A
N/A
$101
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.68% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.7% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.66% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.04% or above

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,835
N/A
N/A
$877
Settled
No
kalshi

4.86% or above

View
0%
76%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,301
N/A
N/A
$366
Settled
No
kalshi

4.88% or above

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,263
N/A
N/A
$197
Settled
No
kalshi

4.92% or above

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,245
N/A
N/A
$97
Settled
No
kalshi

4.98% or above

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,177
N/A
N/A
$1,064
Settled
No
kalshi

4.94% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,069
N/A
N/A
$161
Settled
No
kalshi

5.06% or above

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,032
N/A
N/A
$171
Settled
No
kalshi

5.1% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$970
N/A
N/A
$750
Settled
No
kalshi

5.2% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$927
N/A
N/A
$886
Settled
No
kalshi

4.96% or above

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$706
N/A
N/A
$148
Settled
No
kalshi

5.24% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$492
N/A
N/A
$492
Settled
No
kalshi

4.9% or above

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$492
N/A
N/A
$130
Settled
No
kalshi

5.14% or above

View
0%
38%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$450
N/A
N/A
$420
Settled
No
kalshi

5.18% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$369
N/A
N/A
$369
Settled
No
kalshi

5.34% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$358
N/A
N/A
$224
Settled
No
kalshi

4.84% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$330
N/A
N/A
$320
Settled
No
kalshi

5.22% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$322
N/A
N/A
$149
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 35

Description

This event tracks the performance of a key interest rate benchmark, reflecting expectations about economic conditions and monetary policy over time. The outcome depends on whether the yield reaches specific thresholds, offering insight into future financial market sentiment and policy directions.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the par yield of the 7-year U.S. Treasury as of October 30, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold: if the yield exceeds a specified percentage (e.g., 5.05%, 5.07%, etc.), that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets share the same expiration timeline, closing at the earlier of two times: either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day after the yield data release for October 30, 2026, or one week following that date. This structure creates a series of binary outcomes, each tied to progressively higher yield levels, allowing participants to bet on the likelihood of different yield scenarios.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 7-Year Treasury yield market tracks the current price, 24-hour volume of $998, and total volume of $18,232. It also displays the implied probability of different yield levels being realized on October 30, 2026. Traders on Kalshi are expressing their beliefs about the future 7-year Treasury yield, creating a forward-looking indicator based on real money at risk. The dashboard provides a visual representation of these expectations, allowing users to monitor shifts in sentiment and potential trading opportunities.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a range of expectations for the 7-year Treasury yield, and it’s important to see how these compare to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often publish point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probability distribution of potential outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential blind spots in conventional analysis, offering a unique perspective on future interest rate movements.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different yield levels. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that yield being realized on Oct 30, 2026. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation of the market. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price discovery process allows for a dynamic and real-time assessment of future interest rate expectations, driven by informed traders actively managing their risk and seeking profitable opportunities.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 7-year U.S. Treasury yield is verifiable from credible public reporting. The yield will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider at the close of trading on that day. This market allows participants to speculate on, or hedge against, future interest rate movements, providing a quantifiable measure of market expectations. The final price will reflect the consensus view of traders on Kalshi leading up to the resolution date.

Several key signals or events could significantly move this market between now and Oct 30, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth, will be closely watched. Changes in Federal Reserve policy, including interest rate decisions and forward guidance, will also have a substantial impact. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in global economic conditions could also influence investor sentiment and drive price fluctuations in this market. Any news that alters expectations about future economic growth or inflation is likely to cause movement.