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7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026?
kalshi

7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026?

Volume:
$5,677

4.98% or above

 - Kalshi

4.98% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.98% or above

View
100%
41%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$559
N/A
N/A
$303
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.96% or above

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$492
N/A
N/A
$406
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5% or above

View
0%
41%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,014
N/A
N/A
$465
Settled
No
kalshi

5.12% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$778
N/A
N/A
$586
Settled
No
kalshi

5.24% or above

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$665
N/A
N/A
$565
Settled
No
kalshi

5.1% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$512
N/A
N/A
$337
Settled
No
kalshi

5.06% or above

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$472
N/A
N/A
$270
Settled
No
kalshi

5.04% or above

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$252
N/A
N/A
$102
Settled
No
kalshi

5.02% or above

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$223
N/A
N/A
$210
Settled
No
kalshi

5.22% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

5.14% or above

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$104
N/A
N/A
$102
Settled
No
kalshi

5.16% or above

View
0%
74%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$103
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

5.08% or above

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$102
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

5.18% or above

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

5.2% or above

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This set of markets tracks potential movements in the yield of 7-year U.S. Treasury bonds by setting various threshold levels. Each market assesses whether the yield surpasses a specific benchmark on a set date, reflecting expectations about interest rate changes and broader economic conditions.

Kalshi

These markets collectively evaluate whether the par yield for the 7-year U.S. Treasury exceeds progressively higher thresholds on October 16, 2026. Each individual market has a distinct threshold, ranging from 4.95% to 5.23%, with a 'Yes' outcome if the yield surpasses its specific benchmark. All markets share a uniform expiration protocol: they close at the earlier of two times—either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day following the official yield data release for that date, or one week after October 16, 2026. This structure allows participants to speculate on various potential yield levels, with each market resolving based on its unique threshold while adhering to the same timing rules for closure.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 7-year Treasury yield market tracks the current price, 24-hour trading volume of $698, and total volume of $5,677. It displays the implied probability of different yield levels being realized on October 16, 2026. Traders on Kalshi are expressing their beliefs about the future yield through buy and sell orders, which dynamically adjust the price and probabilities shown on the dashboard. You can also view the price history to see how expectations have shifted over time.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for long-term Treasury yields. While many analysts anticipate a gradual decline in yields, this market incorporates a wider range of potential outcomes, and the implied probabilities are constantly updated based on trader activity. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are often point estimates, whereas this market represents a probability distribution of possible yields. Comparing the two provides a broader view of potential future scenarios.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders submit bids and asks for contracts representing different yield levels. The current price reflects the consensus view of all participants, and it changes as new orders are placed. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price is determined solely by supply and demand within Kalshi, and is not influenced by external factors or other prediction markets. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 7-year US Treasury yield is verifiable from credible public reporting. The yield used for resolution will be the yield on the 7-year US Treasury note at approximately 3:30 PM Eastern Time on October 16, 2026. This market allows participants to speculate on and hedge against potential movements in interest rates, providing a forward-looking indicator based on collective intelligence. The final price will reflect the prevailing market sentiment at the time of resolution.

Several key signals and events could significantly move this market. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth, will likely influence expectations about future interest rate policy. Federal Reserve meetings and statements regarding monetary policy are also critical catalysts. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in global economic conditions could also impact Treasury yields, and therefore, this market. Changes in the perceived risk appetite of investors and fluctuations in other financial markets could also contribute to price movements.