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$219,029,434

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2,984,028,936

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$1,869,293,526

411,051

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7Y US Treasury yield on Nov 2, 2026?
⌛Ending Soon
kalshi

7Y US Treasury yield on Nov 2, 2026?

Oct 30, 2026, 3:30 PM EST - Nov 2, 2026, 3:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$3,177
Volume 24h:
$2,851N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$2,495
665%

4.71% or above

 - Kalshi

4.71% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 2, 2026

Time left: 00h:01m:52s

Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.70% on Nov 2, 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: N/A
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.71% or above

Trade
99%
Yes 99¢No 25¢
24¢
N/A
$201
0%
N/A
$201
1m
Active
kalshi

4.85% or above

Trade
1%
47%
Yes 95¢No 99¢
94¢
N/A
$438
2,630%
N/A
$212
1m
Active
kalshi

4.79% or above

Trade
98%
Yes 100¢No 95¢
95¢
N/A
$542
0%
N/A
$256
1m
Active
kalshi

4.73% or above

Trade
93%
Yes 100¢No 70¢
70¢
N/A
$1
0%
N/A
$1
1m
Active
kalshi

4.75% or above

Trade
75%
Yes 100¢No 80¢
80¢
N/A
$101
0%
N/A
$101
1m
Active
kalshi

4.77% or above

Trade
20%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$107
0%
N/A
$107
1m
Active
kalshi

4.81% or above

Trade
10%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$304
0%
N/A
$304
1m
Active
kalshi

4.97% or above

Trade
8%
Yes 83¢No 100¢
83¢
N/A
$858
0%
N/A
$801
1m
Active
kalshi

4.89% or above

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 88¢No 100¢
88¢
N/A
$20
100%
N/A
$10
1m
Active
kalshi

4.83% or above

Trade
5%
57%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$405
305%
N/A
$402
1m
Active
kalshi

4.87% or above

Trade
1%
Yes 80¢No 100¢
80¢
N/A
$200
0%
N/A
$100
1m
Active
kalshi

4.91% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1m
Active
kalshi

4.93% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1m
Active
kalshi

4.95% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1m
Active
kalshi

4.99% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
89¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1m
Active
Total markets: 15

Description

This event tracks the performance of a key U.S. government bond by measuring whether its yield exceeds specific thresholds on a set date. It reflects expectations about interest rates, economic policy, and investor sentiment at that future point in time. The outcome depends entirely on the actual yield observed, making it a direct test of market predictions.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the par yield for the 7Y U.S. Treasury exceeds a specified threshold on November 2, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging incrementally from 4.70% to 4.98%. If the observed yield is above the threshold defined for a given market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Expiration occurs at the sooner of two times: either 7:00 PM ET on the first business day following the official release of the yield data for that date, or one week after November 2, 2026. All markets share this uniform expiration logic, ensuring consistent timing across all threshold-based outcomes.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 7-Year Treasury yield market tracks the current odds of various outcomes, represented as probabilities. You can also view the price history of the contracts, showing how the market has priced in information over time. The 24-hour volume, currently $2,849, indicates how much trading activity has occurred recently, and the total volume traded to date is $3,187. This provides a snapshot of market interest and how actively traders are responding to news and data releases related to U.S. Treasury yields.

Currently, it's important to note that this market represents the collective prediction of traders on Kalshi. Comparing these odds to external analyst forecasts reveals how the 'wisdom of the crowd' differs from expert opinion. For example, if analysts generally predict a certain range for the 7-Year Treasury yield, this market may reflect a broader distribution of possibilities, or a stronger conviction in a particular outcome. Tracking this comparison can offer valuable insights into market sentiment and potential biases in traditional forecasting methods.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 7-Year U.S. Treasury yield on that date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The yield will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider. The contract will pay out $1.00 to the winning side, representing the accurate prediction of the yield, while losing contracts will pay out $0.00. Traders should monitor economic indicators and Federal Reserve policy announcements leading up to the resolution date.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, are major drivers of Treasury yields. Federal Reserve policy decisions, including interest rate hikes or cuts, and any signals regarding the future path of monetary policy, will also heavily influence trading activity. Unexpected economic growth or recessionary fears, geopolitical events, and shifts in global investor sentiment can all contribute to volatility in this market.