TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 5, 2026?
kalshi

5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 5, 2026?

Volume:
$11,980

4.86% or above

 - Kalshi

4.86% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.86% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,463
N/A
N/A
$2,463
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.88% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,463
N/A
N/A
$2,463
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.9% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,463
N/A
N/A
$2,463
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.92% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,030
N/A
N/A
$1,030
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.06% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$575
N/A
N/A
$296
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.04% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$535
N/A
N/A
$511
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$394
N/A
N/A
$228
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.02% or above

View
100%
40%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$210
N/A
N/A
$172
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.98% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$154
N/A
N/A
$130
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.94% or above

View
100%
87%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$119
N/A
N/A
$119
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.96% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
$21
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.08% or above

View
0%
58%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$724
N/A
N/A
$240
Settled
No
kalshi

5.14% or above

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$518
N/A
N/A
$518
Settled
No
kalshi

5.1% or above

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$311
N/A
N/A
$205
Settled
No
kalshi

5.12% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event tracks the performance of a key indicator in government debt markets, reflecting investor expectations about economic conditions and monetary policy over a specific future date. The outcome depends on whether a particular benchmark interest rate exceeds various threshold levels at a set time, offering insights into potential shifts in financial conditions.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury exceeds a specified threshold on October 5, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging from 4.85% to 5.13%, with a 'Yes' outcome if the yield closes above that level on the specified date. All markets share identical expiration rules: they close at the earlier of 7:00 PM ET on the first business day following the yield data release for October 5, 2026, or one week after October 5, 2026. The structure creates a spectrum of outcomes, allowing participants to bet on different potential yield levels while maintaining consistent timing parameters across all markets.