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411,051

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5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?
kalshi

5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?

Volume:
$4,471

4.7% or above

 - Kalshi

4.7% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.7% or above

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,147
N/A
N/A
$1,130
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.68% or above

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$311
N/A
N/A
$298
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.66% or above

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$300
N/A
N/A
$300
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.72% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,020
N/A
N/A
$996
Settled
No
kalshi

4.76% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$407
N/A
N/A
$407
Settled
No
kalshi

4.74% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$385
N/A
N/A
$372
Settled
No
kalshi

4.94% or above

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$267
N/A
N/A
$267
Settled
No
kalshi

4.86% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$201
N/A
N/A
$201
Settled
No
kalshi

4.92% or above

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$119
N/A
N/A
$119
Settled
No
kalshi

4.78% or above

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$115
N/A
N/A
$14
Settled
No
kalshi

4.88% or above

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

4.84% or above

View
0%
73%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$86
N/A
N/A
$86
Settled
No
kalshi

4.82% or above

View
0%
52%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.8% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.9% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event tracks the performance of U.S. government debt, specifically focusing on the interest rate for a five-year Treasury note at a set future date. It reflects expectations about economic conditions, monetary policy, and investor sentiment influencing borrowing costs over the medium term. The outcome depends on whether the yield meets or exceeds specified thresholds, offering insight into future financial market dynamics.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury exceeds a specified threshold on October 30, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging incrementally from 4.65% to 4.93%. If the published yield for that date meets or surpasses the threshold for a given market, it resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Expiration occurs at the sooner of two times: either 7:00 PM ET on the first business day following the official data release for October 30, 2026, or one week after October 30, 2026. All markets share this uniform expiration logic, ensuring consistent timing across differing yield thresholds.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 5Y US Treasury yield market tracks the current price, 24-hour volume of $2,284, and total volume of $4,471. You can also see a price history chart to understand how the market has been trading. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders believe the 5Y US Treasury yield will be on October 30, 2026. This information is updated continuously as traders buy and sell contracts, reflecting their collective predictions.

Currently, prediction market odds represent a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts for the 5Y US Treasury yield. While analysts often provide point estimates and ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing beliefs as probabilities. It’s common to see discrepancies between these sources, as prediction markets reflect real-time sentiment and incorporate a wider range of information than typical analyst reports. Comparing this market to surveys of economists or bond market strategists can reveal interesting insights into differing expectations.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and asks, and trades occur when they match. The price reflects the probability of the 5Y US Treasury yield being above a certain level on the resolution date. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. The market depth, shown on the dashboard, indicates the volume available at different price points, giving an idea of how strongly traders feel about various outcomes.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 5Y US Treasury yield is verifiable from credible public reporting. The yield will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider at the close of trading on that date. The final price of the contracts will reflect whether the actual 5Y US Treasury yield on October 30, 2026, falls above or below the levels indicated by the traded contracts on Kalshi.

Several economic signals and events could significantly move this market. Changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes or cuts, are major drivers of Treasury yields. Unexpected inflation data releases, strong or weak economic growth reports, and geopolitical events can also influence investor sentiment and impact yield expectations. Furthermore, shifts in the overall risk appetite of investors, driven by factors like global economic uncertainty, could lead to significant price movements in this market.