TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

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$228,458,490

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2,984,028,936

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$1,879,276,037

410,833

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5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?
kalshi

5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?

Volume:
$12,727

4.56% or above

 - Kalshi

4.56% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.56% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.58% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.6% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.62% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.64% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.66% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.86% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,507
N/A
N/A
$7
Settled
No
kalshi

4.92% or above

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,579
N/A
N/A
$65
Settled
No
kalshi

4.96% or above

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,027
N/A
N/A
$639
Settled
No
kalshi

5.2% or above

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$688
N/A
N/A
$377
Settled
No
kalshi

4.82% or above

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$636
N/A
N/A
$9
Settled
No
kalshi

4.78% or above

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$552
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

5.02% or above

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$454
N/A
N/A
$407
Settled
No
kalshi

5.12% or above

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$408
N/A
N/A
$162
Settled
No
kalshi

5.34% or above

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$407
N/A
N/A
$407
Settled
No
kalshi

5.18% or above

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$401
N/A
N/A
$231
Settled
No
kalshi

5.14% or above

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$339
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

5% or above

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$335
N/A
N/A
$308
Settled
No
kalshi

4.98% or above

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$308
N/A
N/A
$118
Settled
No
kalshi

5.1% or above

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$294
N/A
N/A
$161
Settled
No
kalshi

4.76% or above

View
0%
98%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$266
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5.22% or above

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$262
N/A
N/A
$162
Settled
No
kalshi

4.84% or above

View
0%
45%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$261
N/A
N/A
$93
Settled
No
kalshi

5.24% or above

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$261
N/A
N/A
$161
Settled
No
kalshi

4.8% or above

View
0%
65%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$257
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 45

Description

This event tracks the performance of a key benchmark in government debt, reflecting investor expectations about economic conditions and monetary policy over a specific timeframe. The outcome depends on whether this benchmark reaches certain levels by a set date, offering insight into broader financial sentiment.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the par yield of the 5-year U.S. Treasury as of October 30, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold, ranging from 4.95% to 5.23%, above which it resolves to Yes. The expiration time for all markets is uniformly defined as the sooner of two conditions: either the first 7:00 PM Eastern Time following the official data release for October 30, 2026, or one week after that date. This structure ensures consistent timing across all markets while allowing participants to speculate on various yield levels within the same financial instrument.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 5Y US Treasury yield market tracks the current implied probability of various yield levels on October 30, 2026. You'll find a dynamic price chart reflecting trader sentiment, the total volume traded in this market – currently $12,727 – and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $10. The interface also displays the highest and lowest prices traded recently, giving you a sense of the market's volatility and range. This provides a real-time view of how participants are assessing the future direction of US Treasury yields.

Currently, prediction market odds represent a collective forecast derived from individuals trading on Kalshi. These odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts, which are typically based on economic models and expert opinions. While analyst forecasts vary, they frequently center around expectations for inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and overall economic growth. This market allows for a broader range of viewpoints to be incorporated, potentially capturing information not readily available to traditional analysts. Comparing this market to prevailing economic predictions can reveal interesting divergences or agreements.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different yield levels. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that yield occurring on the resolution date. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by new information, shifts in economic sentiment, and trading activity. The current implied probabilities are determined solely by supply and demand within Kalshi.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 5-year US Treasury yield is verifiable from credible public reporting. The yield will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider and represent the closing yield on that date. Traders who correctly predicted the yield level will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution. This allows participants to speculate on and profit from their understanding of future interest rate movements, as reflected by the 5-year Treasury yield.

Several key signals and events could significantly move this market. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth, will likely influence trader sentiment. Changes in Federal Reserve policy, including interest rate hikes or cuts, are also crucial catalysts. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in global economic conditions could also impact the 5-year US Treasury yield. Furthermore, any significant changes in the outlook for US economic growth or inflation expectations could drive substantial price movements in this market.