TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 19, 2026?
kalshi

5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 19, 2026?

Volume:
$5,713

4.94% or above

 - Kalshi

4.94% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.94% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$816
N/A
N/A
$705
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.82% or above

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$735
N/A
N/A
$735
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.88% or above

View
100%
49%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$685
N/A
N/A
$199
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.84% or above

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$625
N/A
N/A
$370
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.86% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$514
N/A
N/A
$481
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.92% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$400
N/A
N/A
$400
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.9% or above

View
100%
56%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$340
N/A
N/A
$135
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.76% or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$226
N/A
N/A
$126
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.78% or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$226
N/A
N/A
$126
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.8% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.04% or above

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$716
N/A
N/A
$700
Settled
No
kalshi

5% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

4.96% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

5.02% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

4.98% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event tracks the performance of a key benchmark in government debt, reflecting investor expectations about economic conditions and monetary policy over a specific future date. The outcome depends on whether this benchmark reaches certain levels, offering insight into potential economic trends.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury exceeds a specific threshold on October 19, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging incrementally from 4.75% to 5.03%. If the published yield for that date meets or exceeds the specified threshold, the respective market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Expiration occurs at the sooner of two times: either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day following the official release of the yield data for October 19, 2026, or one week after October 19, 2026. All markets share this uniform expiration rule, ensuring consistency across differing yield thresholds.