TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

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40,345

events

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4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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5Y US Treasury yield on Nov 2, 2026?
kalshi

5Y US Treasury yield on Nov 2, 2026?

Oct 30, 2026, 3:30 PM EST - Nov 2, 2026, 3:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$2,171
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$1,851
100%

4.66% or above

 - Kalshi

4.66% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 2, 2026

Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.65% on Nov 2, 2026?

79%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 79¢ buys you 127 shares | Odds: 79% Total Payout: $127 | Net Profit: $27 Multiplier: 1.27x | ROI: 27% | APY: N/A Illiquid market
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.66% or above

Trade
79%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$171
0%
N/A
$166
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

4.68% or above

Trade
54%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$514
0%
N/A
$394
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

4.7% or above

Trade
31%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$792
0%
N/A
$601
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

4.74% or above

Trade
17%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$300
0%
N/A
$300
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

4.72% or above

Trade
11%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$244
0%
N/A
$240
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

4.76% or above

Trade
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$150
0%
N/A
$150
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

4.78% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

4.8% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

4.82% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

4.84% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

4.86% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

4.88% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

4.9% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

4.92% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Active
kalshi

4.94% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Active
Total markets: 15

Description

This set of markets tracks potential movements in the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield by setting different threshold levels for a specific date. Each market offers a unique perspective on how high interest rates might climb, reflecting varied investor expectations about economic conditions and monetary policy. The outcomes depend on whether the yield surpasses one of several incrementally higher benchmarks.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the par yield of the 5-year U.S. Treasury as of November 2, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold: if the yield exceeds a specific percentage (e.g., 4.65%, 4.67%, up to 4.93%), that market resolves to 'Yes.' If the yield does not meet or exceed the threshold, it resolves to 'No.' Expiration occurs at the earlier of two times: either 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the yield data is released for November 2, 2026, or one week after November 2, 2026. All markets share these expiration rules, ensuring consistent timing across the set while allowing participants to speculate on different yield levels.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for this market tracks the current price, price history, and 24-hour trading volume for the 5Y US Treasury yield. Currently, the volume is $2,171 and total volume to date is $2,171. Traders on Kalshi are expressing their beliefs about where the yield will be on November 2, 2026, and the dashboard visualizes these predictions in real-time. The platform displays the implied probability of different outcomes based on trading activity, offering a dynamic view of market sentiment.

Currently, analysts' forecasts for the 5Y US Treasury yield on November 2, 2026, vary widely, with estimates ranging from 3.5% to 5.0%. This market allows traders to express a collective prediction, which may differ from the average analyst forecast. It's possible that the wisdom of the crowd, as reflected in this market, will prove more accurate than individual expert opinions. The market aggregates diverse perspectives and incentives, potentially leading to a more informed prediction than traditional forecasting methods.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different yield levels. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that yield occurring on Nov 2, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market depth and order book provide insights into the strength of conviction behind different price points.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 5Y US Treasury yield is verifiable from credible public reporting. The yield will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider at the close of trading on that date. The contract corresponding to the actual 5Y US Treasury yield on November 2, 2026, will pay out $100, while all other contracts will settle to $0. Traders should monitor the market closely as the resolution date approaches.

Several economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in inflation data, Federal Reserve policy announcements regarding interest rates, and unexpected shifts in economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Geopolitical events and global economic conditions could also influence investor sentiment and, consequently, the price of US Treasury bonds. Stronger-than-expected economic data could push yields higher, while a recessionary outlook might drive them lower. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding movements in this market.