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$154.4b

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2,984,028,936

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$1,885,293,300

410,482

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30Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?
kalshi

30Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?

Volume:
$4,016

5.3% or above

 - Kalshi

5.3% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

5.3% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$935
N/A
N/A
$159
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.28% or above

View
100%
28%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$799
N/A
N/A
$599
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.26% or above

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$288
N/A
N/A
$150
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.22% or above

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$105
N/A
N/A
$105
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.36% or above

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$833
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
No
kalshi

5.32% or above

View
0%
36%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$432
N/A
N/A
$332
Settled
No
kalshi

5.34% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$289
N/A
N/A
$214
Settled
No
kalshi

5.4% or above

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$125
N/A
N/A
$122
Settled
No
kalshi

5.44% or above

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$106
N/A
N/A
$106
Settled
No
kalshi

5.42% or above

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

5.38% or above

View
0%
39%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5.16% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.18% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.2% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.24% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 15

Description

This set of markets tracks potential movements in long-term U.S. government bond rates, reflecting expectations about economic policy and growth trajectories. Each market assesses whether a specific interest rate threshold will be surpassed by a set date, offering insight into future financial conditions.

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on the par yield of the 30-year U.S. Treasury as of October 30, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold, ranging from 5.16% to 5.44%, with the outcome determined by whether the yield exceeds the specified level. All markets share a common expiration timeline: they close at the earlier of two times—either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day following the official yield data release for that date, or one week after October 30, 2026. This structure allows participants to bet on various possible yield outcomes while ensuring resolution occurs promptly after the relevant data becomes available.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 30-year Treasury yield market provides a real-time view of trader sentiment regarding the yield on October 30, 2026. You can see the current implied probability of various yield levels, along with a price history charting how expectations have changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume of $2,525, indicating recent market activity. Currently, total volume for this market is $4,016.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially incorporating information not readily captured in standard economic models. While analysts may offer point estimates, this market provides a probability distribution of potential outcomes, allowing for a more nuanced assessment of risk. It's important to remember that both approaches have limitations, and discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and assumptions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers, and trades occur when they match. The price reflects the probability of a specific 30-year Treasury yield occurring on the resolution date. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations accordingly. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate forecasts, as profitable trades depend on correctly anticipating future yield levels.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 30-year US Treasury yield on that date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The yield will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider, ensuring transparency and accuracy. Traders will be able to see the final yield and how it corresponds to their positions. This allows for a clear determination of winning and losing trades based on the actual market outcome.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes or cuts, are major drivers of Treasury yields. Economic data releases, including inflation reports, GDP growth figures, and employment numbers, will also influence expectations. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in global economic conditions could introduce uncertainty and volatility. Furthermore, any news related to US government debt issuance or credit ratings could move this market as traders adjust their forecasts.