TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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30Y US Treasury yield on Oct 26, 2026?
kalshi

30Y US Treasury yield on Oct 26, 2026?

Volume:
$4,569

5.3% or above

 - Kalshi

5.3% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

5.3% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,103
N/A
N/A
$533
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.26% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$254
N/A
N/A
$104
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.28% or above

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$218
N/A
N/A
$102
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.16% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$201
N/A
N/A
$201
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.24% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$151
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.18% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.2% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.22% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.32% or above

View
0%
71%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,604
N/A
N/A
$1,414
Settled
No
kalshi

5.36% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$833
N/A
N/A
$137
Settled
No
kalshi

5.34% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$201
N/A
N/A
$201
Settled
No
kalshi

5.4% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

5.38% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5.42% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5.44% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event tracks the performance of long-term U.S. government debt, specifically focusing on the yield of 30-year Treasury bonds. The outcome depends on whether this key interest rate benchmark reaches certain thresholds by a set date, reflecting broader economic expectations about inflation, growth, and monetary policy direction.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the par yield of the 30Y U.S. Treasury as of October 26, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold: if the yield exceeds a specific percentage (e.g., 5.15%, 5.17%, etc.), that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Expiration occurs at the earlier of two times: either 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the yield data release for that date, or one week after October 26, 2026. All markets share this uniform expiration logic, ensuring consistency across differing yield thresholds.